A new publication on “Exploring a method to reduce inconsistency in the group Analytic Hierarchy Process using the Delphi method and Nudge theory” by Simone Di Zio, Co-Chair of The Italy Node of The Millennium Project, and Theodore J. Gordon, co-founder of The Millennium Project and esteemed futurists pioneer, is now available on Futures, Volume 161, August 2024, 103413 (DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2024.103413).

The paper reports a new method based on a Delphi process to nudge responses of participants toward consistency in an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) study. The authors hypothesized that data collected during an early round of an AHP study could establish ranges of answers for later rounds that would improve consistency of responses. In their design, the Delphi method provided an effective framework for feedback of the bounds calculated between rounds. Using Delphi within the AHP to nudge answers of experts toward answers that promote consistency was the focus of our method.

The authors propose an application using four mini scenarios depicting alternate futures for the management of genetic modification technologies. They found that in most instances our nudges improved the consistency of responses in sequential Delphi rounds; however, in some instances, the Delphi suggestions of bounds were not followed by a sufficient number of participants and a small number of inconsistencies remained.

The value of this work may be in its warning to other researchers who attempt to achieve consistency by nudging responses in a paired comparison AHP study, to be quite explicit in instructions about remaining within the given bounds and perhaps creating incentives for respondents to do so.

This is probably the last publication left by Theodore Gordon. In commenting the launch of the paper, Simone Di Zio said: “Ted, did you see? We finally did it!!! It is with a bittersweet heart that I announce the publication of our paper in Futures: This paper is the culmination of years of research and collaboration with my dear friend and colleague, Ted Gordon. Ted was a brilliant scientist and a tireless advocate for Futures Research. He was always generous with his time and knowledge, and he inspired me for a long time. I am deeply saddened that he is not here to share this moment with me. Ted passed away before the paper was published, but his contributions to the research were invaluable. I am deeply honored to have my name on this paper alongside Ted’s. He was a true pioneer in the field of Futures Studies, and I will always be grateful for his mentorship. I know that Ted would be proud of this paper. Ted was a wonderful friend and a brilliant scientist. We miss him very much.”.

More information about the paper are available at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S001632872400096X