What is the State of the Future Index (SOFI)?
The State of the Future Index (SOFI) is a data-driven outlook for the future produced by The Millennium Project. It uses historical data (minimum 20 years) to forecast potential trends over the next 10+ years, combining nearly 30 variables—such as CO2 emissions, income inequality, and literacy rates—into a single graphical representation of global progress.
About the SOFI
Assessing the impact and the interplay of the different potential developments affecting the future is a difficult and controversial task, but it is nevertheless valuable and necessary for coherent policymaking. Quantitative assessment of the factors of change helps us understand the system and supports the setting of priorities.
The SOFI is an indication of the outlook for the future based on historical data for a period at least double of the forecasted one; e.g., for a 10-year forecast, at least 20 years of historical data are used. The SOFI is a graphical representation that shows potential trends by combining several variables/indicators relevant to the system—see Figure 1. It is not a projection; its role is solely to help identify possible trajectories of its components and the relationships among them—how changes to individual or several variables ripple throughout the system. It has been produced by The Millennium Project since 2000. [For details on the methodology, see “State of the Future Index” chapter in the Futures Research Methodology 3.0.]
The SOFI computation entails many subjective decisions and probabilities; hence, the apparent precision of the graph should not be mistaken for accuracy. Combining many variables into a single index also leads to loss of detail, hide certain aspects by compensating losses in some areas with progress in the others, and mask variations among sectors, regions, or nations. Nevertheless, the SOFI can be useful for assessing the consequences of different policies and for showing the combined potential outcomes in an easy-to-understand mode.
SOFI is in continuous evolution and adapted to global changes. The indicators included in the SOFI, as well as their respective weights (importance to the system) and the “best” and “worst” values for the forecasted period have been decided through RTD international panels and updated by The Millennium Project staff. The assessments for the best/resworst values of the 2030 SOFI variables have been made by an international panel of experts using the platform provided by 4CF-The Futures Literacy Company.
The sources of data are carefully considered for reliability and consistency of data collection and data definitions for at least twenty-year period. For each new SOFI computation, all data are updated, and the curve fit equations are reassessed for each indicator, and new extrapolations and interpolations are made.
The indicators included in the computation of the 2035 SOFI are listed below. The baseline SOFI that resulted from the use of the new data sets is shown in Figure 1, while Figure 2 illustrates some sensitivity analysis on how SOFI might look like if some specific policy/strategies were to be adopted.
