The Millennium Project provides a context for global thinking and potential for improved understanding of how humanity could work together to improve the human condition. In addition to the annual State of the Future reports, the Project conducts different special studies.
Environmental Security Issues - Monthly Reports
The purpose of the study is to assess worldwide environmental-related issues in order to identify and analyze events that might trigger future international environmental treaties, conventions, or protocols and/or modifications of the existing ones.
Updated monthly on the website and included, along with analysis and a synthesis report, in the annual State of the Future reports.
For an organization of the items by cathegory, please see:
- ES-scanning-09.pdf for items identified between August 2002 and June 2009, or
- ES-2006-08.pdf (includes potential military implications) for items identified between July 2006-June 2008, and
- ES-2008-09.pdf (includes potential military implications) for items identified between July 2008-June 2009.
Security: Emerging International Definitions, Perceptions, and Policy Considerations
(shorter version: "Defining Environmental Security: Implications for the U.S. Army")
by Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Renat Perelet, 1997-1998, for the U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute
(included in the State of the Future reports published after1998)
- Environmental Security: United
Nations Doctrine for Managing Environmental Issues in Military Actions
by Joe B. Sills, Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, Renat Perelet, 1999, for the Army Environmental Policy Institute
- Vol. I United Nations Doctrine for Managing Environmental Issues in Military Actions
- Vol. II International
Treaties, Conventions and Protocols that address environmental related
Selected International Organizations relevant to Environmental Security
(included in the State of the Future reports published after 1999)
Crimes in Military Actions and the International Criminal Court (ICC) -
by Joe Sills, Jerome C. Glenn, Elizabeth Florescu, and Theodore J. Gordon, 2000, for the U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute
(included in the State of the Future reports published after 2001)
International Environmental Security Issues and Potential Military Requirements
the period of 2010 to 2025
by Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon, 2002, for the U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute
The Millennium Project has began the work on a Global State of the Future Index
in 2000. The study has been initiated and is conducted by Theodore J. Gordon.
The first years work, published in 2001, was designed to explore the concept and applications of such an Index. Since then, each year the work extended the methodology and explored new approaches by which future developments as well as time series variables could be included in the Index. Since 2004, national SOFIs were explored and developed.
The Silicon Valley Node of the Millennium Project is currently developing a greatly advanced version of the SOFI as a software.
A concept and design of a system of collective intelligence that could be used by the policymakers, energy experts, and the general public around the world.
The options to create and update national, global, and corporate energy strategies are so complex and rapidly changing that it is almost impossible for decisionmakers to gather and understand the information required to make and implement coherent policy. Yet the environmental and social consequences of incoherent policies are so serious that a new global system for the identification, analysis, assessment of possible consequences, and synthesis of energy options for decisionmaking is urgent.
With support from the Foundation for the Future (FFF), the Millennium Project explored the concept and design of such a system of collective intelligence that could be used by the policymakers, energy experts, and the general public around the world. Concepts such as knowledge management and the emerging field of collective intelligence for just in time knowledge have been considered. Sources such as OECD's International Energy Agency, DOE's Energy Information Administration, Encyclopedia of Earth, and IEEE's data banksi have been reviewed, as well as the use of software applications such as knowledge visualization, dashboards, decision support systems, Google, Citizendium, Wikipedia, and Second Life to understand current and foreseeable future capabilities. This review helped to generate questions for energy and information systems expert interviews and solicited feedback from attendees of the FFF energy conference and the 32 Millennium Project Nodes around the world.
The results of these interviews and searches of previous literature, Internet, and institutional reviews have been integrated into this report. Participants from the FFF energy conference along with information system experts have been added to a listserv <email@example.com> to review and discuss the initial drafts of this report. In addition to improving the quality of the report, the members of the listserv would constitute an initial Global Energy Network that could become the basis of an organization to bring the new system into being.
This report proposes to create initial prototypes and conduct tests by the Millennium Project and collaborating organizations such as SRI International, MIT's Center for Collective Intelligence, and the Cyber Node of the Millennium Project.
The Real-Time Delphi is a relatively new and efficient method for collecting and synthesizing expert opinions. The original Delphi technique was developed by the RAND Corporation in the late 1950s. Although it has produced many valuable insights for many around the world, it requires multiple rounds of questionnaires that can take months to complete. The big advantage of the RTD is that it is a "roundless" Delphi. There is no need for an explicit second round. The respondents participate by filling out an online questionnaire, and the results--both numerical and qualitative--are updated as responses are recorded in "real time." Respondents can--and are encouraged to--revisit the questionnaire as many times as they want. Each time, they are shown their own responses as well as the updated answers of the others, and they can revise and change their own inputs based on this feedback.
The real-Time Delphi was developed and is continuously improved by Ted Gordon.
- a description of the method (excerpt from the Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0 )
- a tutorial for the Real Time Delphi (RTD) narated by Ted Gordon, at http://www.mpcollab.org/learning/course/view.php?id=3
- a description of some RTD studies conducted by the Millennium Project in 2008-2009 (Chapter 4 of the 2009 State of the Future)
Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking
by Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon, in 1998-1999
Examples and case studies when Futures Studies influenced decision
This study was made for the Army Environmental Policy Institute. The full report is included in the State of the Future reports.
Free copies of the edited version of the report can be obtained from the Army Environmental Policy Institute, e-mail: John Fittipaldi <John.Fittipaldi@hqda.army.mil>
- In the period from August 2004 to July 2005, the Millennium Project conducted
a study of emerging global ethical issues and principles by which such issues
might be resolved in the future. The scope was global and the time horizon stretched
to 2050. More specifically, the purposes of this study were to:
- Identify important, novel ethical issues of global scale that might
come on the scene within the next 50 years
- Assess the relative importance of these issues and the likelihood of
- Articulate the key principles that might be used in the solution of such ethical issues.
For all of these, we hoped to identify the similarities and differences in perceptions among the subgroups participating in the study, for example, people from various regions and men and women.
The questionnaires are available at http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/study05.html
Please click here to get the final report (as MsWord file).
by Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon, 1999
Very long-range scenarios and foreseeable factors that might significantly affect the next 1000 years. The Scenarios are included in the State of the Future reports and also available at http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/scenarios/index.html.
A Brief Overview of Potential Environmental Pollution and Health Hazards Resulting
from Possible Military Uses of Nanotechnology with Implications for Research
Priorities Helpful to Prevent and/or Reduce Such Pollution and Hazards
-- Study conducted in 2004-05 --
by Jerome C. Glenn, Elizabeth Florescu, and Theodore J. Gordon
Analysis of the statements delivered by heads of State or Governmentat at the UN Millennium Summit, September 6-8, 2000. The full report is included in the State of the Future reports (2001 and after).
Price: $49.50 US dollars
Prepared by the Centro Latinoamericano
de Globalizacion y Prospectiva, the Latin American node of the
Millennium Project, this CD-ROM includes the Spanish version of the 1997
and 1998 State of the Future reports, and papers on Corruption, Globalization,
Organized Crime, Political Systems, Roadmaps, Reflections on the Future,
and a lot more.
Views from the Millennium Project on the Future of Technology with Implications for Society and the United Nations System
Paper prepared by Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon for the conference: On the Threshold: The United Nations and Global Governance in the New Millennium, Jnuary 19-21, 2000, United Nations University, Tokyo, Japan
For the MsWord version of this paper please e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
The World Perceived by the Heart of Europe
Published by the Society for Sustainable Living and Palacky University Olomouk, this book is is a collections of papers on the future prepared by participants of the Central European Node of the Millennium Project. To get a free copy e-mail: Pavel Novacek <email@example.com> in the Czech Republic or firstname.lastname@example.org, in other parts of the world.
by Jerome C. Glenn
Present trends in technology and in CO2 accumulation suggest that we will probably be in deep trouble in a few decades, if we do not take more aggressive action now to address the problem.
and Adoptive Sectoral Innovation System in Nanotechnology to Accelerate Scientific
& Technological Breakthroughs and Improve Human Conditions"
by Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko, Head of Department, Centre of Science Development Study, Russian Node co-Chair
by Mika Aaltonen, Adjunct Professor (Foresight & Complexity), and Head and Chairman of the Board of StraX (the research unit for strategic intelligence and exploration of futures) at Helsinki University of Technology