2005 State of the Future
by Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon
 
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all www millennium-project.org 

  Paperback with CD-ROM

... enclosed CD contains over 3,500 pages of research behind
this print edition, plus the Millennium Project's nine years of
cumulative research and methods.

 Table of Contents

 List of Tables, Figures, and Boxes

 What Is New in This Year’s Report

Read the Executive Summary (PDF file) English, Chinese, French, Japanese, Persian, Spanish, Czech

 

 

The report is also available in:

French--See the leeflet: 2005 L'Etat du Ftutur

Chinese

Korean

Spanish

 

 

 

 

Persian

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The State of the Future is an extraordinary overview of the emerging future, which reminds policymakers of their longterm responsibilities.
                              Barbara Haering
                              Vice-President, Parliamentary Assembly, OSCE
                              Vice-chair of the Defence Committee of the National Council of Switzerland

The Millennium Project's work and its State of the Future reports are very important for Korea and the future of our planet.
                              Lee Kang-chul
                              Chief of Staff for the President of South Korea

The State of the Future compiles an incredible wealth of knowledge from around the planet, the kind of cumulative information that we need to create a real worldwide intelligence.
                             Luis Alberto Machado
                             Former Minister of Intelligence, Venezuela

Six of the last eight annual State of the Future reports were selected by Future Survey as among the year's best books on the future.

Internationally acclaimed resource for policy board rooms, strategists on global change, and those who need a heads up on what's next. It provides a series of executive summaries in print and details in a CD of the global prospects for humanity and strategies for today.

It is produced by the Millennium Project, which collects, feeds back, and assesses insights from creative and knowledgeable people on emerging crises, opportunities, strategic priorities, and the feasibility of actions. Nearly 2,000 futurists, business planners, scientists, scholars, and decisionmakers who work for international organizations, governments, private corporations, NGOs, and universities in more than 50 countries have contributed to this five-year cumulative research. Your feedback is welcome to improve the next State of the Future.
 

Paperback with CD-ROM. 100 pages print and over 3,500 pages CD-ROM
ISBN: 0-9722051-4-4
Library of Congress Control Number: 98-646672
Price: $49.95 US dollars plus shipping.   Discount 40% for orders over 10 copies.
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Table of Contents
The 2005 State of the Future is composed of two parts: print and CD. The print book contains the executive summary of each of the studies conducted in 2004-2005. The enclosed CD of over 3,500 pages contains the cumulative work of the Millennium Project since 1996 and all the details of the studies included in this print section.

Table of Contents Print Section

Table of Contents CD

List of Tables, Figures, and Boxes
 

Table of Contents Print Section
 

Foreword

Executive Summary - 1

1. Global Challenges - 11

2. State of the Future Index - 43

3. National SOFIs: Back-testing and Effects of Dataset Changes - 51

4. Future Ethical Issues - 57

5. Nanotechnology: Future Military Environmental Health Considerations - 67

6. Emerging Environmental Security Issues - 79

7. Sustainable Development Index and Quality and Sustainability of Life Indicators - 89

Appendix
Millennium Project Participants Demographics - 99

Acronyms and Abbreviations - 100


Table of Contents CD-ROM Section


Executive Summary (11 pages)

1. Global Challenges (790 pages)

2. State of the Future Index Section
2.1 Global SOFI (220 pages)
2.2 National SOFIs (33 pages)
2.3 Global Challenges Assessment (94 pages)

3. Future Ethical Issues (80 pages)

4. Global Scenarios
4.1 Normative Scenario to the Year 2050 (18 pages)
4.2 Exploratory Scenarios (40 pages)
4.3 Very Long-Range Scenarios-1,000 years (23 pages)
4.4 Counterterrorism-Scenarios, Actions, and Policies (40 pages)
4.5 Science and Technology 2025 Global Scenarios (19 pages)
4.6 Middle East Peace Scenarios (90 pages)

5. Science and Technology
5.1 Future S&T Management and Policy Issues (400 pages)
5.2 Nanotechnology: Future Military Environmental Health Considerations (21 pages)

6. Global Goals for the Year 2050 (24 pages)

7. World Leaders on Global Challenges (42 pages)

8. Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development
8.1 Measuring Sustainable Development (59 pages)
8.2 Quality and Sustainability of Life Indicators (9 pages)
8.3 Partnership for Sustainable Development (48 pages)

9. Environmental Security (510 pages)
9.1 Emerging Environmental Security Issues
9.2 Environmental Security: Emerging International Definitions, Perceptions, and Policy Considerations
9.3 Environmental Security: UN Doctrine for Managing Environmental Issues in Military Actions
9.4 Environmental Crimes in Military Actions and the International Criminal Court (ICC)-UN Perspectives
9.5 Environmental Security and Potential Military Requirements

10. Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking (55 pages)

Appendices
Appendix A: Millennium Project Participants (list of names with affiliation and country)
Appendix B: State of the Future Index Section
Appendix C: Global Ethics
Appendix D: Global Scenarios
Appendix E: Science and Technology
Appendix F: Global Goals for The Year 2050
Appendix G: World Leaders on Global Challenges
Appendix H: Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development
Appendix I: Environmental Security Studies
Appendix J: Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking
Appendix K: Annotated Bibliography of About 600 Scenario Sets
Appendix L: Publications of the Millennium Project

Acronyms and Abbreviations

List of Tables, Figures, and Boxes

Tables

Table 1. Impact of Variables' Changes on National SOFIs - 54
Table 2. Highest-Rated Future Ethical Issues by Importance, Organized in Three Time Periods - 59
Table 3. Health Hazard Research Questions and Priorities-Sorted by Knowledge Gain Potential - 72
Table 4. Research Questions and Priorities for Addressing Environmental Pollution-Sorted by Knowledge Gain Potential - 73
Table 5. Priorities of General Questions and Objectives to Gain Further Insight into Nanotech Impacts-Sorted by Knowledge Gain Potential - 74
Table 6. Basic Structure of the Sustainable Development Index - 91
Table 7. SD Index Performance - 92
Table 8. Basic Structure of the Quality and Sustainability of Life Index - 94

Figures

Figure 1. 2001-05 State of the Future Index, Annual Comparisons - 4
Figure 2. Carbon Dioxide Concentration - 13
Figure 3. Access to Safe Water - 15
Figure 4. Calories Per Capita Per Day - 17
Figure 5. Evolution of Countries' Freedom - 19
Figure 6. Regional Internet Population Growth - 23
Figure 7. Regional Demographics of People Living on Less than $1/Day - 25
Figure 8. Growth of International Organizations - 29
Figure 9. Number of Armed Conflicts - 31
Figure 10. Women in Parliament - 33
Figure 11. Total Primary Energy Supply - 37
Figure 12. 2005 State of the Future Index - 45
Figure 13. Annual SOFI Comparisons - 46
Figure 14. State of the Future Index 2004 - 46
Figure 15. Annual AIDS Deaths - 47
Figure 16. Life Expectancy - 47
Figure 17. Number of Armed Conflicts - 47
Figure 18. Debt/GNP Ratio - 47
Figure 19. Food Availability - 48
Figure 20. Violent Crime - 48
Figure 21. National SOFI Backtesting: Projected 2002 versus Real 2002 Values - 53
Figure 22. Argentina SOFI Using Projected Data, with Real Data Point for 2002 - 53
Figure 23. Ecuador SOFI Using Projected Data, with Real Data Point for 2002 - 53
Figure 24. Importance versus Ease of Resolution, by Region - 60
Figure 25. Comparison of Opinions by Gender - 60
Figure 26. Shifts in Spread 2005-50, by Category of Principle - 63
Figure 27. Importance: Gender Differences 63
Figure 28. Spread of Principles in 2005 - 64
Figure 29. Spread of Principles in 2050 - 64
Figure 30. Spread of Principles in 2050, by Region - 64
Figure 31. World Map of Sustainable Development Index - 91
Figure 32. Examples of Two Countries' Development Balance - 93
Figure 33. Chart of QSL Index for the Czech Republic, 1990-2006 - 95
Figure 34. QSL Index for the Czech Republic Regions - 96
Figure 35. Participants in the 2004-05 Program - 99
Figure 36. Participants Since 1996 - 99

Boxes

Box 1. The 15 Global Challenges Identified and Discussed - 10
Box 2. Variables Included in the 2005 SOFI - 44
Box 3. Future Ethical Issues: Some Common Themes - 58
Box 4. Ethical Principles and Value Statements - 61
Box 5. Top Principles Present in all Time Periods - 63
Box 6. Scale for Rating Research Priorities - 71


What Is New in This Year’s Report

* Both the short and long versions of the 15 Global Challenges were updated, and measures of success were added.

* Each Challenge in Chapter 1 of the CD has a hyperlinked table of contents for easier navigation through the nearly 700 pages of text.

* The data used in the State of the Future Index have changed over the past five years, as has the SOFI itself. The reasons for these changes were assessed for insights into key factors that may make the next 10 years better or worse.

* Future ethical issues were identified and rated in a global Delphi, as were potential shifts in global acceptance of values.

* Potential environmental and health impacts from military and other aggressive uses of nanotechnology with research prioritization to prevent such problems were assessed by an expert panel in a two-round Delphi.

* Emerging environmental security issues with implications for international agreements and military implications were assessed.

* Improvements were made to a Sustainable Development Index, and the Quality and Sustainability of Life Indicators were introduced for national and regional usage.

* About 50 scenarios were added to the Annotated Scenarios Bibliography on the CD, for a total of over 600 scenarios or scenario sets.

* The CD includes details and research that support the print version; it also includes the complete text of previous Millennium Project works:

• Global exploratory, normative, and very-long range scenarios, along with an introduction to their development.
• Three Middle East Peace scenarios and the three-year study behind them.
• Science and Technology scenarios and the two-year supporting study.
• An analysis of the statements by world leaders delivered at the UN Millennium Summit in 2000.
• Environmental security definitions, threats, related treaties; UN military doctrine on environmental issues; potential military environmental crimes and the International Criminal Court; changing environmental security military requirements in 2010–25; and factors required for successful implementation of futures research in decisionmaking.
• Two studies to create indexes and maps of the status of sustainable development, conducted by the Millennium Project participants, and an international review of the concept of creating a “Partnership for Sustainable Development,” a study initiated by the Central European Node.


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