2001 State of the Future
by Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon

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The past can only be described, but we can write the future together. The State of the Future offers us a creative and new project of hope.
Federico Mayor, former UN Under-Secretary-General and
Director-General of UNESCO


The 's Millennium Project on the State of the Future combines, as it should, flights of imagination into the far future with tightly focused analyses of present challenges.  An indispensable volume for those who seek both the inspiration and enlightenment needed to meet the challenges that will make a productive future possible.

Michael W. Doyle
Special Adviser to the Secretary-General
Assistant Secretary-General, United Nations


The mission of the UNU is to generate new ideas and fresh thinking of relevance to the United Nations and, in a wider sense, to the challenges faced by humanity. As we enter the new Millennium, the State of the Future provides valuable insights into our vastly more complex, inter-linked and mutually dependent world.

Hans van Ginkel, UN Under-Secretary-General and
Rector of the UNU


2001 State of the Future is a unique resource for those who care about global change and improving the future. It provides an assessment of the human situation as a whole, prospects for the future, and actions for today. It is used by both those who need the most precise briefings and those who want the full research background. Each chapter in the book is an executive summary of more complete reports in the CD-ROM section of over 1,500 pages. As a result, it provides a common platform for global actors, educators, and concerned public to use in building more coherent policy.

It is produced by the Millennium Project, which collects, feeds back, and assesses insights from creative and knowledgeable people on emerging crises, opportunities, strategic priorities, and the feasibility of actions. Over 1,000 futurists, business planners, scientists, scholars, and decisionmakers who work for international organizations, governments, private corporations, NGOs, and universities in more than 50 countries have contributed to this five-year cumulative research. Your feedback is welcome to improve the next State of the Future.


Table of Contents

Print Section
CD-ROM Section

Print Section

Executive Summary 1

1. Global Challenges 7

2. State of the Future Index 39

3. Future Issues of Science and Technology 45

4. World Leaders on Global Challenges 55

5. Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development 61

5.1 Measuring Sustainable Development 62
5.2 The Sustainable Development Index 66
5.3 Partnership for Sustainable Development 71
6. Scenarios 75

7. Environmental Security 81

Appendix

Millennium Project Participants: General Demographics 88
Acronyms 89

CD-ROM Section

Executive Summary (6 pages)

1. Global Challenges (424 pages)

General description with comments and a range of views
Regional perspectives
Actions to address the challenge with a range of views
Indicators to measure progress on the challenge
2. State of the Future Index (66 pages)
2.1 Executive Summary
2.2 Some Existing Indicator Activities
2.3 Concept of the State of the Future Index (SOFI)
2.4 Five Important Questions in Designing the SOFI
2.5 An Example of a Global SOFI Analysis
2.6 Research Issues
2.7 Conclusions
3. Future Issues of Science and Technology (79 pages)
3.1 Executive Summary
3.2 Introduction and Study Objectives
3.3 Study Design
3.4 The S&T Questions
2.5 Range of Opinions on Answers to the S&T Questions
3.6 Analysis
3.7 Online Comments
3.8 Questionnaire Comments
3.8 Conclusions
4. World Leaders on Global Challenges (42 pages)
Executive Summary
4.1 Globalization
4.2 Peace and Conflict
4.3 Rich-Poor Gap
4.4 Human Rights
4.5 UN Reform
4.6 Environmental Issues


5. Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development (44 pages)

5.1 Measuring Sustainable Development
5.2 The Sustainable Development Index
5.3 Partnership for Sustainable Development6. Scenarios (84 pages)
6. Scenarios
6.1 Exploratory Scenarios
6.2 Global Normative Scenario
6.3 Very Long-Range Scenarios (1000 years)
7. Environmental Security (163 pages)
7.1 Environmental Security: Emerging International Definitions, Perceptions, and Policy Considerations
7.2 Environmental Security: United Nations Doctrine for Managing Environmental Issues in Military Actions
7.3 Environmental Crimes in Military Actions and the International Criminal Court (ICC)--United Nations Perspectives
Appendices
Appendix A: Millennium Project Participants, 1996-2001
Appendix B: The State of the Future Index (50 pages)
Appendix C: Future Issues of Science and Technology (53 pages)
Appendix D: World Leaders on Global Challenges (28 pages)
Appendix E: Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development (39 pages)
Appendix F: Scenarios (145 pages)
Appendix G: Environmental Security Studies (92 pages)
Appendix H: Annotated Bibliography of over 400 Scenarios and/or Scenario Sets (202 pages)
Appendix I: Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking (110 pages)
Appendix J: Publications of the Millennium Project
Acronyms


ISBN: 0-9657362-8-8
Library of Congress Control Number: 2001092336
Price: $49.98 US dollars (plus shipping). Discount for order of 10 issues or more: 40%.
Payable by major credit cards or US dollars check or money order.

To order: send email to acunu@igc.org or tel/fax: 202-686-5179



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