Millennium Project

1999 STATE OF THE FUTURE: Challenges We Face at the Millennium
Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon

ISBN 0-9657362-3-7
340 pages Price: $48.50 Discount 40% for order over 10 copies
 

This year's book presents the accumulative research of the past three years of approximately 550 participants from 60 countries who have contributed their judgments about the future of humanity. The 1999 State of the Future provides an independent, inter-institutional, multinational, and interdisciplinary context for global thinking.

Beginning with the identification and discussion of the impediments and aids for timely responses to early warnings or alerts, and the ethical issues involved, the book then describes 15 Global Challenges we face at the millennium. These have been distilled and updated from 15 Global Issues and 15 Global Opportunities previously identified by the Millennium Project, along with the actions to address each, and a range of views on each action.

Additional sections of the book include:

See Table of Contents below.

Personal interviews were also conducted with policy makers and advisors by the Millennium Project's Nodes (groups of institutions and individuals) around the world as to the effectiveness of the actions to help reduce the time from early warning to timely action identified by the Project's participants. The study found a remarkable degree of agreement about this and how to address the challenges we face at the millennium. This is especially striking considering the diversity of Millennium Project participants from UN organizations, governments, multinational corporations, universities, NGOs, and think tanks from many cultures.

The Millennium Project is not a one-time study of the future, but provides an ongoing capacity as a geographically and institutionally dispersed think tank.

Copies of the book can be ordered from:

email acunu@igc.org

The Millennium Project
American Council for the UNU
4421 Garrison Street, NW
Washington., DC 20016 USA
Phone/Fax 202-686-5179


Table of Contents
Executive Summary ... 1

1. Introduction and Background ... 9

2. Global Challenges, Actions and a Range of Views ... 15

3. Early Warning and Timely Actions ... 109

3.1 Action Impediments for Timely Decision ... 110
3.2 Forms of Information Needed for Timely Decision ... 113
3.3 Newly suggested developments ... 113
3.4 Review of the 1996 and 1997 developments ... 117
3.5 Changing importance of Issues and Opportunities ... 118
3.6 Analysis of Panel Expertise .... 120
4. Morals and Ethics in Decision Making ... 123

5. Scenario Research  ... 133
 

5.1 Global Normative Scenario ... 134
5.2 A Technique for User Interactive Exploratory Scenarios ...  144
6. Environmental Security Study ... 149
6.1 Executive Summary ... 150
6.2 Definitions of Environmental Security ... 154
6.3 Environmental Security Threats and Policy Leadership Responsibilities ... 160
Appendices
Appendix A: List of Participants and Demographics ...  166
Appendix B: Details of the Lookout Analysis ... 176
Appendix C: Lookout Panel Questionnaires and Interview Protocol ... 193
Appendix D: Impacts/uses of Millennium Project materials ...  222
Appendix E: Annotated Scenarios Bibliography ...  224
Appendix F: Web-sites related to Futures Studies ... 332
Appendix G: An Experimental Questionnaire on Morals and Ethics in Decision Making ... 334
Appendix H: Millennium Projectís Planning Committee and Node Chairs ...  339




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