RESULTS OF POPULATION

DELPHI ROUNDS I and II

In the first round, the panelists were asked to rate some forces that led to the reduction of the world population growth rate from 2.06% in the late 1960s to 1.7% currently and to assess how these forces might change over the next 25 years. They were invited to add forces, which were rated in the second round by the same Scale A below.

Table 1: orders these forces by their historic influence

Table 2: orders them by their future influence.

Scale A

Historic Influence

1 = Very Important
2 = Important
3 = Marginally important
4 = Unimportant
5 = Counter impact

Future Influence

1 = Greatly increasing in importance
2 = Increasing in importance
3 = Remaining the same in importance
4 = Decreasing in importance
5 = No longer a factor, or mixed

Table 1 - The importance of some HISTORIC factors on global population growth

• 2.0 Availability of inexpensive, simple effective contraceptives;
• 2.0 Family planning and public health programs
• 2.0 China's population policy
• 2.0 Legitimization of contraception
• 2.0 Decreases in infant and child mortality
• 2.1 Government policies in developing countries that encourage smaller families
• 2.1 Increasing number of years that women attend school
• 2.1 Rising incomes and the spread of middle class values
• 2.2 Move away from agricultural society/primary sector
• 2.3 Spread of new communications media (Television, etc)
• 2.3 War, famine, disease, and pestilence
• 2.4 Improved literacy by improved children's schooling
• 2.4 Decreasing Catholic Church's social influence
• 2.5 Rise of "woman's power."
• 2.9 Availability of male contraceptives
• 2.9 Environmental deterioration
• 3.1 Education about relation of environment and population
• 3.1 Increasing futuristic orientation
• 3.2 Demonstration by the North that fewer children can mean more wealth

Table 2 - The importance of some forces affecting population over the NEXT 25 years

• 1.8 Spread of new communications media (Television, etc)
• 2.0 Increasing number of years that women attend school
• 2.0 Environmental deterioration
• 2.1 Government policies in developing countries that encourage smaller families
• 2.1 Family planning and public health programs
• 2.1 Improved literacy by improved children's schooling
• 2.2 Availability of inexpensive, simple effective contraceptives
• 2.2 Legitimization of contraception
• 2.2 Education about relation of environment and population
• 2.2 Decreases in infant and child mortality
• 2..3 Rising incomes and the spread of middle class values
• 2.3 Availability of male contraceptives
• 2.4 Rise of "woman's power"
• 2.4 Increasing futuristic orientation
• 2.6 Move away from agricultural society/primary sector
• 2.6 Decreasing Catholic Church's social influence
• 2.7 War, famine, disease, and pestilence
• 2.8 China's population policy
• 2.8 Demonstration by the North that fewer children can mean more wealth
  

In the first round, the panelists were asked to rate some forces the could explain why populations rates have remained relatively high in the developing countries and to assess how these forces might change over the next 25 years. They were invited to add forces, which were rated in the second round by the same Scale A above.

Table 4: orders them by their future influence.

• 1.6 Need of children for social security, to support parents in their old age.
• 1.7 Discrimination against women (little autonomy, education, and lack of social power)
• 1.8 Poverty
• 1.8 Low levels of literacy and lack of understanding ecological view of planet earth
• 2.0 Family-based, labor-intensive economies needing children's input
• 2.0 Low levels of literacy
• 2.1 Close adherence to religious tenets that lead to avoidance of contraceptives
• 2.1 Rural areas receive less attention from population programs than urban areas
• 2.2 Lack of information and access to contraceptives
• 2.2 High infant mortality
• 2.3 Masculinity associated with increasing numbers of children
• 2.4 Belief by governments that larger populations mean greater political strength
• 2.8 Government policies supporting large families
• 3.1 Liberal immigration policies in richer countries

Table 4 - How important will these forces be over the NEXT 25 years?

• 2.2 Low levels of literacy and lack of understanding ecological view of planet earth
• 2.4 Poverty
• 2.6 Rural areas receive less attention from population programs than urban areas
• 2.7 Low levels of literacy
• 2.8 Discrimination against women (little autonomy, education, and lack of social power)
• 2.8 Lack of information and access to contraceptives
• 3.0 Need of children for social security, to support parents in their old age.
• 3.1 Family-based, labor-intensive economies needing children's input
• 3.1 High infant mortality
• 3.2 Belief by governments that larger populations mean greater political strength
• 3.4 Close adherence to religious tenets that lead to avoidance of contraceptives
• 3.4 Government policies supporting large families
• 3.4 Liberal immigration policies in richer countries
• 3.5 Masculinity associated with increasing numbers of children

The panelists were asked to assess new forces and unprecedented events that might influence population growth in the future and suggest and assess additional such forces as to their likelihood of occurrence and impacts over the next 25 years using Scale B.

Table 6: shows their impacts over the next 25 years.

Scale B

Likelihood of occurrence

1 = almost certain
2 = likely
3 = even or 50/50 chance
4 = unlikely
5 = almost impossible

Eventual impact on population within the next 25 years of growth

1 = reduces growth rate by 30% or more
2 = reduces growth rate by 5-30%
3 = no impact
4 = increases growth rate by 5-30%
5 = increases growth rate by 30% or more

Table 5 - Likelihood of occurrence of new forces or unprecedented events that might influence future population growth.

• 1.8 Simple test for identifying the sex of unborn children
• 1.9 Increasing survival in middle age and early old age due to curing or improved therapy for heart disease, cancer and stroke
• 1.9 Public health programs decrease mortality of infant and young adults by 5-10%
• 2.1 Simple, safe, effective male birth control pill
• 2.3 Changes in death rates due to spread of AIDS in developing countries
• 2.4 Massive starvation of the scale of Somalia at least once every three years
• 2.5 Long term (at least one year) contraceptives widely used and accepted as birth control pills are today
• 2.5 Important negative changes in the environment (e.g., accumulation of toxic wastes, failures of mono-agriculture crops, contamination of drinking water) resulting in increased mortality
• 2.6 New deadly viruses, including AIDS mutations
• 2.6 Wide spread use of relatively cheap and easy ways to affect the aging process, resulting in diminished mortality and extension of the life span by about 5 years
• 2.6 3% of births via new methods of impregnation and prenatal development ("Outside womb" fertility, artificial inseminating, surrogate motherhood, other such techniques)
• 2.8 Simple method for selecting sex at conception
• 2.9 Rising incomes in most developing countries
• 2.9 Increasing sterility, worldwide, by 10% due to environmental degradation, higher level of stress, and other factors
• 3.3 Change in the Vatican's position: use of contraceptives becomes available without limit
• 3.4 Two children per family becomes the social norm in the majority of the developing world
• 3.4 Increasing impotency by 10% due to environmental degradation, higher level of stress, and other factors
• 3.4 Doubling, worldwide, of today's level of male and female homosexuality
• 3.5 20% increase of people active in religions that encourage higher fertility
• 3.6 Successful new prototype habitats in oceans, cold regions, or in earth orbit gives stimulates popular frontier spirit and alternatives to previous urbanization patterns
• 3.9 Basic economic needs met for 90% of global population (minimum acceptable health care, food, and shelter)
  

Table 6 - Eventual impact of these new forces and unprecedented events on population growth over the next 25 years.

• 2.0 Long term (at least one year) contraceptives widely used and accepted as birth control pills are today
• 2.1 Rising incomes in most developing countries
• 2.1 Two children per family becomes the social norm in the majority of the developing world
• 2.3 Simple, safe, effective male birth control pill
• 2.3 Change in the Vatican's position: use of contraceptives becomes available without limit
• 2.3 Increasing sterility, worldwide, by 10% due to environmental degradation, higher level of stress, and other factors
• 2.4 Changes in death rates due to spread of AIDS in developing countries
• 2.4 New deadly viruses, including AIDS mutations
• 2.5 Important negative changes in the environment (e.g., accumulation of toxic wastes, failures of mono-agriculture crops, contamination of drinking water) resulting in increased mortality
• 2.6 Massive starvation of the scale of Somalia at least once every three years
• 2.6 Simple method for selecting sex at conception
• 2.7 Simple test for identifying the sex of unborn children
• 2.7 Increasing impotency by 10% due to environmental degradation, higher level of stress, and other factors
• 2.7 Doubling, worldwide, of today's level of male and female homosexuality
• 2.9 3% of births via new methods of impregnation and prenatal development ("Outside womb" fertility, artificial inseminating, surrogate motherhood, other such techniques)
• 2.9 Basic economic needs met for 90% of global population (minimum acceptable health care, food, and shelter)
• 3.0 Successful new prototype habitats in oceans, cold regions, or in earth orbit gives stimulates popular frontier spirit and alternatives to previous urbanization patterns
• 3.2 Public health programs decrease mortality of infant and young adults by 5-10%
• 3.4 Increasing survival in middle age and early old age due to curing or improved therapy for heart disease, cancer and stroke
• 3.4 Wide spread use of relatively cheap and easy ways to affect the aging process, resulting in diminished mortality and extension of the life span by about 5 years
• 3.5 20% increase of people active in religions that encourage higher fertility

With the information provided by the panel in round I, we identified two possible future events that were judged to be unlikely, but nevertheless potentially effective in reducing population growth rates, if they were to occur. Both have been considered before and one is the focus of large international programs. Without repeating what has been said and tried many times, we asked for suggestions about novel policy approaches that might be practical, and if implemented, improve the probability of these developments. A distillation of those suggestions follow:

1.4.1 Novel policies that could lead to a social norm of two children per family throughout the majority of the developing world:

• Contraceptives added to the water supply, to conceive potential parents obtain counter active agent.
• Family-size tax that increased substantially for every child over two.
• Prohibition of child labor.
• Universal and compulsory schooling, for all to age 15-16, with mandatory immunizations from birth onward, and free available family planning support. Clean water is also a necessity.
• Tie all government subsidies to number of children per family in an inverse relationship.
• Why not encourage acceptability of no children for some couples in all countries? Why must we all reproduce? New paradigm needed
• Policies should focus on women's access to work and education.
• With enough effort and resources, the present policies (national, bilateral, and multi-lateral) that try to make family planning services universally available and to promote information, education and communication about family planning, hence the two child norm should be virtually universal within 25 years.
• Study what would motivate those who have more than two to limit to two. Different programs for different groups, China's program seems to work; Indians would need to design one for India.
• Free circulation of contraceptives in public health programs supported by churches and other religious organizations.
• International information utilities in education, health, and training in information society.
• Adopt Chinese incentives
• Bi- and multi-lateral aid requires it.
• Without significant reductions in poverty and infant mortality, and increase in women's education and empowerment, these policies would need to be coercive in nature or at least provide strong economic
• Disincentives to having many children.
  

1. Novel policies that could lead to the Vatican's acceptance of contraception without limit:
   • Remove Holy See from the United Nations on grounds that it is not really a country and give it the same status as the World Council of Churches.
   • Promotion of contraceptive that is accompanied with strong dissemination of moral values.
   • Separate personal religious beliefs from personal choices as to the use of contraceptives.
   • Theological doctrine developed by U.S. Catholic Bishops in support of sustainable development (of Government Statements at UNCED 1992).
   • New international convention of religious leaders - Vatican III - with supporting papal encyclical letter - 1995.
   • Elect a non-European Pope.
   • Schism
   • It is not practical.
   • Create philosophical shift among powerful within the Roman Catholic Church.
   • Policies that focus on responsabilization of woman to make choices.
   • Only decline of organized religion is likely to affect the situation.
   • Allow priests and nuns to marry and pay for the raising of children.
   • Reconsideration of the theology of St. Thomas Aquinas - especially the discarding of the Thomastic view of "natural law" as it applied to human sexuality. Christ said nothing whatsoever about human sexuality. Separate the notion of procreation as the only "natural end" from that of enjoyment.
   • Try to influence Vatican that some kinds of contraceptions could possibly be acceptable-not "chemical" and for women contraception but "mechanical" and for men (condoms) contraception.

1.4.3. Other policy areas of your selection and how you would address it:

• Research for long-term implantable ovulation suppression device.
• Global televised debate on population policy, environmental protection, and social ethics.
• Sex education in schools
• All nations will have to eventually adopt policies that clearly state the freedom of individual choice.
• Policies that emphasizes people to take charge of their lives and reduce dependence on governments.