This section includes regional views on the following challenges:
Democratization
How
can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? [Challenge
4]
Global Long-Term Perspectives
How
can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives?[Challenge
5]
Capacity to Decide
How
can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions
changes? [Challenge 9]
Peace and Conflict
How
can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflict, terrorism
and the use of weapons of mass destruction? [Challenge 10]
Transnational Organized
Crime
How
can organized crime be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated
global enterprises? [Challenge 12]
AFRICAAfrica Asia and Oceania Europe Latin America North America
"There is a real platform for sustained economic and political reform from South Africa to Nigeria," says UNDP. Mozambique, Rwanda, Uganda, Nigeria and South Africa all provide good examples of development progress, especially economically. Despite recent military clashes, Rwanda and Uganda "provide evidence of the possibility of rebuilding," after enduring devastating dictatorships. Despite recent catastrophic flooding, Mozambique will likely achieve an economic growth rate of 5% this year. South Africa and Nigeria, the "linchpins of any African political and economic revival," are led by accountable, democratic governments.”
Dictators in Africa will not yield their power until they have secure retirement situations. An illustration of such security would be the creation of an “African Council of Elders,” composed of former heads of state who advise Africa, similar to a village “council of elders.” This would provide such leaders with a position of say, after their tenure in power.
Some argue that it is not democracy that has avoided starvation in Africa, but the democracies are of the more wealthy nations and their wealth is what prevents the starvation. Yet, Zimbabwe has had agricultural problems, but did not have starvation. Democracies cannot prevent droughts, but they can prevent starvation by citizens pressing for government action to prevent starvation. Ethiopian and Sudanese authoritarian governments did not have to respond and experienced starvation.
Yet, much of Africa is still tribal, and this must be taken into consideration when reviewing the region’s political and economic issues. Its tribal nature will probably not change for another 200 years. As long as there exist several official languages within the same country, tribal authoritarian regimes are likely to exist. Presently, there are eleven official languages in South Africa alone.
Most perceive the death of authoritarian rule in two ways: a natural death caused from dissatisfaction within the government itself, or a death through pressure from the people within the country combined with pressure from world democracies.
Some claim that the demise of authoritarian regimes is impossible unless
forced by other countries and further say that even today there are only
a few countries that can be considered genuine democracies, and the international
community should support only genuine democracies.
A need for mass education, participatory development, governance structures
that respect local African cultures, improved economic growth with equity,
and especially a need for the absolute rejection of ethnic and religious
biases (authoritarian regimes thrive on ethnic and religious fundamentalism)
exists. Development of this kind must include free press, free mobility
of people, respect for human rights, freedom to form non-ethnic and non-religious
political parties, and open investment policy. Private domestic and foreign
investment must be promoted and will result in more understanding of Africa
internationally.
ASIA and OCEANIA
In Asia, nine of 26 countries were rated free by the Freedom House
report. Compared to all other regions in the world, ``the roots of democracy
and freedom are the weakest'' in the Middle East, says Freedom House.
The argument that “democracies tend not to fight each other” is based on the selective evidence primarily from Europe and North America. The states of these regions, especially Western Europe, have settled territorial, nation-state identities and related issues, and have addressed their socio-economic affairs, creating an environment of peace and stability. All this cannot be attributed to participatory management of political affairs. Democracy has to be seen as a process and an attitude of, and towards life. It is acquired over time and the struggle for its improvement is an unending process.
A primary example of the necessity of stability and sustainability is China. With a population of over 1.3 billion people, a rapid transition to democracy as Russia attempted, could be extremely hazardous. The key lies in altering the authoritarian decision-making process to a more democratic one through a continuous change in institutions and policy-making.
In regards to human development, people will be at varying levels on Maslow’s Hierarchy of Human Needs. Only after people have met their basic survival needs, will society progress toward modernization and development. Human development is economic, political and cultural, and some claim that democracy is an advanced need in the course of human development.
Amongst the main targets of modernization is social democratization. Yet, China must adopt a model more specific to its region rather than the general one of the West. When Western capitalist countries emerged, grew, and expanded, their economy and political structure developed simultaneously under their own historical conditions. However, the conditions that existed in the old Western countries during their evolution do not presently exist in China.
Thus, in the case of China, democratization and economic growth cannot be pushed simultaneously. Democracy must be built on the condition of economic development, and the most effective approach to developing the economy is through an authoritarian government. All the social forces can be integrated, in order to develop the economy. This has proven successful in many cases in the past, such as with the Asian Dragons. Given Chinese political and economic reality, it may be unrealistic to adopt all the democratic ideas and institutions of the West. Additionally, the conventional culture rooted in the minds of the Chinese cannot be altered abruptly, for genuine democracy is not only a political institution, but is an idea of the mind and a habit or behavior. Genuine democracy would require changing the minds and thus the actions of the people. Democracies must be practiced by people, not simply be built from rules and laws.
If through authoritarian government, the economy grows, the level of human life will improve and people will feel increasingly autonomous. As the level of education increases, people will feel the responsibility to criticize the government, and will begin to seek democracy and freedom. Many scholars recognize a link between a market economy and democracy. Finally, given China’s current reality, economic development is the main objective of government; with this, democracy will follow as the focus should then be on a more legitimate form of rule based on consensus and shared values. These shared values will not only emerge from the prior mentioned increase in education level, but also from freer media and access to information sources, including the Internet.
India is the largest democracy in the world, and yet South Asia still needs to evolve a democratic institutional framework to safeguard peace and discontinue distrust between groups and nations. As opposed to from within, India is more threatened by outer forces in the region. Subjects for cooperation within such a framework would be religion, sustained economic development, culture, security, strategic cooperation, ecological systems, and natural resources like water.
Litigants in India fighting cases in the Orissa High Court now have free Internet access to case records following the inauguration of two Web sites by state Chief Justice N.Y. Hanumanthappa. A litigant can easily find out in which court his case is appearing and its listing. Besides, the search engines of the Web site will help a litigant or the general public to find details related to a particular case. <www.cddc.vt.edu/digitalgov/news-orissa.htm>
This distrust results from the condition that South Asia is a set of civilizations with vast cultural and religious differences. The societies also have a great division between upper and lower classes. Encouraging peaceful democratic development between inharmonious religious groups, which includes Islam, is difficult. Some kind of framework for coexistence needs to be developed, in order for democracy to prevail. To ensure constructive interaction between Southeast Asia and South Asian, one might imagine an ASIEAN-SAARC framework.
If this distrust and instability remains unsettled, a lapse to authoritarian rule, by violent means or through elections as with Indira Gandhi, in India, could occur. Unless democracy is sound and successful, dictatorships might seem like attractive alternatives, despite their flaws.
Despite this political flaw of distrust and discord, India has a one major asset: the general belief in democracy. The majority of the people of South Asia share in this belief; Sri Lanka is a democracy, Bangladesh and Nepal are developing as such. Yet, Pakistan and Afghanistan are isolated and will remain so until democracy is restored in those countries. In Pakistan, there will be international influence, as the US will make the return to democracy a condition for support.
The external donors may encourage democratization, but it establishment cannot be a condition for development assistance. Elections are necessary for democracy, but not sufficient for democracy. The whole governance including the issues mentioned in the general statement above must be used as a criterion to judge governance. A historic and comprehensive approach is needed rather than pushing democracy down the throat of the developing nation.
Asia is also characterized by strong authoritarian governments like Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia, which are only nominally democracies. Though the region has experienced economic prosperity, setting the stage for the evolution of democracy, tensions stemming from autocratic rule are prevalent. The collapse of the High Performing East Asian Economies demonstrates the flaws in their current system. With social turmoil in Malaysia, collapse of the Suharto regime displays the significant issue that legitimacy is not a function of economics but of representation.
With the economic success of the authoritarian regimes in the region, many excuses were made about how human rights need to be sacrificed for economic well being. Yet, now with its regression the losses have surfaced not only economically, but also culturally, as the people have disregarded the teachings of Asian religions or philosophies, such as Confucianism, Buddhism, Taoism, and the belief that leaders should rule justly for the sake of economic success.
Democracy is fairly rooted in Japan. However, this democracy was instilled by outside forces rather than emerging from within, or from its people. As a result, Japanese democracy is superficial. The Japanese population is indifferent to democracy…Establishment of individuality, a higher level of education, and strict self-discipline established steady Japanese economic and political progress….
The governments of Indonesia and the Phillippines must change their relations with aboriginal people by restoring or facilitating the democratic rights of those people. They must respect the universal declaration of human rights. This goal can be furthered if other countries stop protecting governments who mistreat their people.
Australia has an influential role to play in the South Pacific region. It could influence regimes through economic and political means. Human rights issues should affect the decision to give aid to and trade with other nations. Australia also needs to ensure the democratic rights of its aboriginal people.
The next century is predicted to be the century of democratic revolutions
in Asia. The emphasis must be on the recognition of the individual - the
crucial factor for the progress of societies and institutions - and thus,
individual liberty must be ensured. From this new philosophy, the
region will be able to progress significantly.
EUROPE
Authoritarian tendencies from the communist heritage and the fanatic
mafia-like religious forces are still widespread, as is political-economic
corruption. Even within the EU, democracy in the sense of parliamentarism
is just in its initial stages, since the Amsterdam Treaty just became law
and the new commission of the EU is just being established.
The French press freedom advocacy group Reporters Sans Frontieres claim that some countries in Asia, the Middle East, and Europe are trying to control or track their residents' movements on the Internet.
To impede these tendencies, political pressure must come from citizen movements, women’s participation in political and economical life must be strengthened, new productive ways like neighborhood service markets must be developed, openness and transparency of government preparations and affairs must be increased, and liberalization of activities (deregulation in some areas while more regulation in others) must occur.
Democracy is reasonably well established in the UK and Europe, but then again, majority rule does not always produce the best results…. Improvement and galvanizing local participation are crucial to the problems caused by global imposition of a capitalistic competitive economy.
The new Balkan turmoil and the many potential similar conflicts in Eastern Europe and Russia have potential to cause world wars that will transcend Europe itself.
In Europe, sometime minorities or regions do not feel fully incorporated into the democratic process, for example, Brussels bureaucracy versus the national democracy. To combat this, empowerment of the people through local initiatives and independent citizen’s actions is necessary.
In Central and Eastern Europe the present effort at democracy is weakened by two factors: after the collapse of Communism and the failure of the West failed to re-enforce internal democratic forces in the former Communist States. The West tried to export concepts and programs and did not use a balance of East-West expertise to boost economic development. Yet, most recently, great strides have been made in the establishment of free market economies, democracy, and freedom in many parts of Central and Eastern Europe.
The great problem connected with democratization is the ability of totalitarian regimes and dictatorships to adapt their basic structures while keeping their basic functions and the core of their dictatorship under the form of democratic regimes. It is something like mimicry in the world of animals. It is very dangerous especially in countries of Central and Eastern Europe where old power elites are still in power. Nowadays only some feedback is implemented in political structures of Central and Eastern European Countries. It is very dangerous for the future when the scenario of revival of authoritarian regimes is just possible as the scenario of creating genuine democracy.
There is also an increasing focus on enlargement of the EU to the East as well as to the South.
The actions suggested in this section to further the evolution of genuine democracy are good, but not sufficient to insure that Russia moves toward a more democratic rather totalitarian regime. Some additions for Russia should include: 1) Define status of NGO and local communities; 2) It is not enough to have State transparency and accountability; it is also necessary for corporations to increase private investments and for the creating of new culture of business; 3) NGOs need more experience; and 4) to transition to democracy is a cultural as well as a political transition full of unexpected problems. Sometimes it looks like two steps forward and one step back, yet the step back maybe needed to evaluate unexpected problems and to consider next steps.
Where there is a solid democracy at the institutional level, there is often not a solid sense of democracy in the minds of the citizens. Many countries that have suffered for years under authoritarian rule have older generations that fear liberty. Disrespect for the law, corruption at all levels, and intolerance for minorities are also problems in public and political life, such as the case with the Czechs. In Central and Eastern Europe many theoretical economic concepts failed because of an insufficient legal framework.
In many of these countries, the basic ranks of totalitarian regimes are still in power. There is still a lack of decentralization, transparency, and feedback, and corruption is existent.
The region’s central focus should be the design of basic rules for a democratic political system, promotion of the respect for law, reduction of corruption, and promotion of tolerance of minorities, including immigrants (especially asylum-seekers).
Western type of democracy based on principles of liberal democratic society oriented on individual freedoms is not possible to mechanically export to other civilizations based on different cultural values. The effectiveness of exporting democracy varies widely around the world. Many Third World NGOs are oriented only on funds and ideas from the foreign countries, they are not really indigenous organizations emerging from the cultural evolution of their countries.
We can see the trend of transforming democracy to partocracy (simulating
democracy without citizens by political parties) not only in new democracies
but also in classic democracies. The citizen is in position of automate
or machine for voting and civic society has still smaller voice and influence
on the state. This form of democracy is very invalid and it must be done
all for cutting the power of partocracy and for support of influence of
civic society. It is good to support creation of transnational civic organizations
for monitoring state of the world and their activities with using Internet.
LATIN AMERICA
South America is passing through a crisis in democratic order. In some
cases, this involves the political regime structure; such is the case for
Peru and Venezuela. In other cases, the compromise is with the social conflict,
which is expressed in multiple modalities and such ethnic and disruptive
phenomena as narcotics and guerrilla warfare.
In Costa Rica, Democracia Digital <www.democraciadigital.org> is a non-profit civic initiative directed towards using information and communication technology for the extension and the enrichment of the democratic coexistence of the Costa Rican society, facing the beginning of a new century. The strategy aims at information dissemination on subjects relative to the public interest and creation of new spaces of consultation.
On the way to democracy, we see; in many cases, that the countries’ economic administration is in crisis: external debt, the opening to international markets has not led to seeing that the countries need some extra time to adapt their economies to the international competition. Due to this we have seen a process of "deindustrialization" (and many enterprises collapse) and inflation. The social impact of the measures taken by the government to cope with the economic crises has been very high. Venezuela and Peru have turned to the power of the presidents: Former President Fujimori closed the Congress because of corruption, he repressed Sendero Luminoso, and adopted a new constitution. Chavez on the other side has begun some reforms to the constitution. He wants an executive power and he does not count on military force. Chavez is seen as a menace for everybody because he might bring some instability to the region.
If the current wave of democracy and free economy does not improve the equality of life for the ordinary people, authoritarian and dictatorial trends would resurface or become more prominent where these still exist.
To legitimize free market democracies and promote equity and justice is a challenge for Latin America. If this does not materialize, autocratic or totalitarian regimes will return. Their democracies may be so weak that they may need protectorates to survive, similar to the USA-GB-NATO for Kosovo or Bosnia.
After 190 years of civil wars and dictators, democracy has no deep roots.
Fewer than 50% of the citizens vote. They have lost faith in political
parties, politicians, and speeches (a similar percentage votes in the USA
as well).
NORTH AMERICA
The United States is supporting and encouraging the growth of democracy
throughout the world. Yet, the concept of democracy is very poorly
understood by most youth, including those in the U.S. A primary tool
that should be used by the U.S. is increased communication between people
in authoritarian regimes and those in democratic regimes to increase awareness
and openness to new ideas. Increased communication could cover everything
from product marketing, to lifestyle marketing via television programs,
to true educational, persuasive messages. Additionally, improvement
of economies could help mitigate control of individuals by a central regime.
Increased trade requires interaction between diverse cultures and even policy changes.
Democratic societies must remember that democracy can be lost. The emergence of democracy requires an environment in which people can trust each other.
The U.S. must maintain and strengthen its democratic institutions. Whether the US likes it or not, it serves as a model…. Money and special interest lobbying, as well as advertising and campaign contributions now corrupt US democracy…. This may be countered by finding a consensus by using public interest polling on all issues to transcend special interest groups and by releasing these to all media…. North America’s struggle involves moving from the comfort of authoritarian commissioners to having involved citizens.
Greater sharing and transfer of information could hasten achievement of democracy from North America to other regions like Central America.
Though the U.S. is a democratic leader, ethnic and economic conflicts are there. This stress has hit society, threatening democratic ideals. Educating people in these ideals is an essential key to their sustenance. Yet, there is some vague perception of what genuine democracy is, and democracies have significant problems, as does capitalism.
AFRICAAfrica Asia and Oceania Europe Latin America North America
In addition, as many African governments are engaged in crisis management, they should be encouraged and supported to move into national strategic planning.... UNDP/African Futures is working with governments to make this change.... Skilled people are needed.
Our long-range focus is on managing economic and political transitions
in a manner that would improve Africa's share in world trade and raise
Africa's voice in global decisionmaking.... International debts could be
reduced in exchange for national long-range development plans for African
countries…. People from more developed countries must come to Africa and
consider how these projects affect the international community. So,
educated policy makers and international cooperation is needed.
ASIA and OCEANIA
The Asian collapse of 1997-98 has highlighted the dangers of attempting
to discern and plan for a single future. The current constrained political
climates impede the understanding of linked multiple futures. Long-term
perspectives would help us to see holes in economic, social, and political
planning.
Domestic concerns take priority over global concerns. More cooperation within the region and balance of supply and demand needs to be created. There is a tendency to let the West take the lead in such matters. In any case, how often does the first world consult underdeveloped countries?
Short-term and local orientation decisionmaking has caused many disasters in China. It is a common problem in various realms of decisionmaking: chemical use in cropland, large dam construction, national population strategies, car industry development, etc..... Long-term and global perspectives would reduce unexpected economic and political disasters, for they encompass a wider range of possible cause and effects.
China is working on long-term development plans and how to carry out democratic monitoring for policymaking…. The central focus should be the development and use of more appropriate decision support models and tools…. Additionally, a good US-China relationship is central. Improved understanding and tolerance in cultural diversity among different nations (again, US and China in particular) is crucial.
It is important for the policies made in UN conferences to fit China's situation and be compatible with China's policies as well international standards as much as possible. Establishing a harmonious relationship between the international level and national level has significant practical meaning. Chinese government signing international documents and complying with international policies allows us to make the long-term policies both globally and regionally.
The regional governments are strongly run by autocratic, top-down, centralized planning. This centralized economic and social planning was suitable during stable periods, but this is now increasingly inappropriate when rapid change is the norm.
Long-term decisionmaking or sustainability can only be assured with an understanding of the complex interaction between environmental, economic and social/cultural factors, and with comprehensive planning and management grounded in ecological principles. Therefore, the key is to raise the ecological awareness of decisionmakers, entrepreneurs, and residents.
The first step in order to improve long-range global thinking is to implement the strategy of sustainable development, the 21st Agenda, rational use of natural resources, environmental protection, biodiversity, conservation, eco-restoration of degraded areas, and such. These should be the indicators to assess the achievements of a leader and the basis upon which to appoint a leader. Apart from this, education, information exchange, and suitable compensation mechanisms (for taking upon economic losses for the sake of ecological protection) are also necessary.
Global long-term policy has been stimulated by UN conferences such as the Earth Summit in 1992, the Cairo Summit and Population Summit in 1994, the Social Summit in Copenhagen in 1995, and the Fourth World Conference on Women in 1995, etc. The documents made after the conference provide us with useful information for long-term policy making.
The long-term focus for South Korea is developing comprehensive diplomatic policies for national reunification, setting the environment for peace and security on the Korean peninsula, and improving welfare in cooperation with the four big powers (USA, Russia, China, and Japan).
Perception gap in Japan is widening between local interests and global interests at the political and economic levels.... Political leaders and public have a mental block about global long-term issues; the Japanese people have isolated themselves by deeming themselves as completely unique and separate from the rest of the world. Yet, Japanese do think long-term, as evidenced by the use of two-hundred-year-old wood in the every 20-year rebuilding cycle of the Ise Shrine and the planting of seeds that will be used in the Ise rebuilding cycle two-hundred years from now. Also, Japanese corporations and Keidanren are famous for their long-term planning.
We can increase global long-term awareness through bilateral and multilateral dialog and cooperation, new mechanisms for information exchange, and increasing global monitoring by the UN.... Globalization needs to be reinterpreted to make it truly representative of the East, West, North and South.
Australia has taken a leading role in policy making related to global
change and in the Framework Convention on Climate Change, even establishing
an Australian Greenhouse Office. Yet, still, in Australia (and the
South Pacific), policymaking is mainly governed by a short-term view as
a result of the political cycles and the exigencies of the annual review
of economic performance. The key action to address the Australian superannuation
system is relationship management. Yet, social marketing needs to be backed
by substance.
EUROPE
Interest among governments on long-term future issues has increased
since, say, the 70s or 80s. In part, that is because many of the
issues have thrust themselves upon governments and effective policy action
requires extremely long lead times (implications of ageing populations
for public finances and health systems, restructuring of energy systems,
transport problems, sustainable development issues, and major geopolitical
shifts such as the emergence of China. There is also a growing sense
among governments that they need to make better use of what future-research
tools they have, because they perceive the world as an increasingly complex
and rapidly changing place.
The current perspective is to create a federal European state like the U.S.A.... The “Third Way” or “New Middle” is a new perspective (mainly on the left side) between unregulated capitalism and various forms of authoritarian regimes. Its development is likely to evolve new ideologies.
The French government has announced its advocacy of a World Environment Organization to ensure that member countries respect environmental agreements.
Lip service is being paid to concepts such as global climate change, ozone holes, and sustainable development. Unfortunately, much of the public policy adjustment amounts to more renaming and less substantive change. This is a familiar political game, which gives rise to cynicism among the general public, as politicians embrace the latest field of global concern in their speech-making and public engagements alone. Opportunism of this kind is not compatible with the more laudable efforts of international diplomats and negotiators who struggle each day to reach agreements often under severe time constraints.... Long-term global perspectives can only be integrated into decision-making if international treaties, conventions, and declarations are all carried over into national legislation and supported by national governments. In order for this to be successful, authority of international and global organizations should be increased.
Global Long-Term Perspectives are influenced by the growing contradiction between globalization and regionalism. The role of the "Washington Consensus" is an important factor in common European policies.
Recent scholarly work has assembled strong evidence that long-term processes play a part in shaping the global European history.... Some rare European nations are long-term oriented, but Europe as a whole is not. Discussions on a future Transatlantic Union (TAU) could shake up Europe. Yet, one must note that Europe's problems are much bigger than those of the Americas, due to the diversity of long-established structures and policies currently present. A joint future offers unimaginably great opportunities.... Though the situation in Europe is complex, EU does offer shared responsibility for global problems.... If Western Europe does not lead, the world cannot be expected to follow.
The Nordic welfare state has been a laboratory of socially sustainable development. The effort to combine ecological, social, economic and cultural sustainable development in the same framework is basically a task for futures activists to reassess, reorganize, and highlight new information, consciousness, and a new kind of public discussion.
Due to Central and Eastern Europe’s isolation during the communist period and the absence of overseas colonies, its societies and politicians are inherently not interested in "global" issues that the other Western societies are so very sensitive to (ecological issues in remote parts of the world, famine, deforestation, etc.).... Many countries in Central Europe remain close with totalitarian regimes for over 40 years…. There is the lack of any future vision in Czech policy, except President Vaclav Havel’s ideas. But his visions are much more philosophical than concentrating on practical levels….
As a result, access to information and education on personal experiences and more from different regions and countries is fundamental for expanding our global long-term perspectives and for the design of long-term economic, social and political strategies at all levels of decision-making and management.... Non-Communist Party members must be involved.
Preoccupation with long-term goals is often viewed as weakness and lack of focus. Therefore, it is promptly punished in the political arena. In Central Europe, the political culture emerging from the ruins of communist regimes tend to be even more shortsighted than elsewhere. In times of economic and social instability and growing frustration, the only political agenda seems to be “maximizing personal function” or just survival. Strategic visions are not in fashion.
Action taken elsewhere is likely to affect the region, at least as a source of inspiration. The region may feel the urgency of considering long-term issues like sustainable development simply because it appears on the big neighbors' agenda, or, they may feel the need to give in to external pressure to do so (but in that case, the interest would not be genuine). The region should be shown, through examples or through learning processes, that promotion of principles of sustainable development is rewarding and that it forms an integral part of the region's intrinsic interests…. There should be enhanced cooperation and coordination at the regional level, for instance among Visegrad-4 countries or countries associated with the EU. A substantial political debate should be launched to appraise the vested interests of Central Europe in promotion of sustainable development and making its benefits accessible for all.
Yet, improving long-term thinking may not be possible, some say. The future is not predictable. The countries in the region have had much experience of communist “scientific” predictions. For example, in the 1950's it was decided to make cars like the West, which had a high percentage of steel in their construction. By the time more steel was produced, the Western cars contained less metal in their more sophisticated construction (this also, in essence, argues for the need to improve forecasting).
As a response to new challenges, a national system of future exploration was established in the former Soviet Union 1979 mandated by legislation to look out 25 years. During the period of crises it was destroyed. In the mid-1990s a new law was adopted to rebuild future studies, but on a new theoretical and methodological basis. Unfortunately, the political incentives are for short-term attention, even thought there are departments of future studies now in each ministry in Russia that provides information to other departments which are responsible for the strategy, priorities, and use this information about the future.
Future studies have already been introduced into courses into advanced training of policy makers in Russia. It is usually only two or three lectures, but it is a beginning nonetheless. Scientists initiated this process. The growth of complexity of problems will push the changes in the paradigm of thinking and will change the role of long- term future studies.
Russia also has the Institute of Future studies of the Russian Academy of sciences; many other research institutes have departments of future studies. These institutes prepare postgraduates and postdoctoral work in future studies. Many scholars enter the government agencies; and it gives a hope that the situation will change for better. There is an attempt to incorporate scenarios into different levels of policymaking in Russia.
Yet all this is not enough in make policymaking more sensitive to global long-term perspectives. The actions suggested in this section may not be able to make policymaking more sensitive to global long- term perspectives. In order to act globally, policy-makers should think globally. They should understand not only the threats of globalization but also the advantages of globalization. They should understand the growing interlacing of different parts of the world.
Globalization of terrorism, organizing crime, environmental issues,
and science will push global thinking; but special training of policy makers
will still be needed. It would be better to start this training from childhood.
A school of Presidents is established in Russia, where teaching is started
from 5 years old or so.
LATIN AMERICA
The demand for change is growing, and real progress seems to be being
made against corruption in Latin America. Politicians seem to be moving
power to the people. That does not necessarily mean long-term perspectives
though, but these changes may open the door. Increased education
for the region is critical and needs to encompass global issues.... The
emergence of a new generation of leaders is evident.... They are talking
on leadership, risk, change, endurance, education, and a vision for all.
NORTH AMERICA
U.S. President George W. Bush asked by The Futurist whether we would
see more foresight in government, answered: "I'd like to see that, too,"
he said. "It'd be a miracle."
However, Bush announced in March 2001 his intention to form the President's
Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST). Former U.S. President
Clinton established in 1993 by Executive Order 12882 the President's Committee
of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) with the responsibilities
to advise the President on issues involving science and technology and
their roles in achieving national goals and to assist the National Science
and Technology Council (NSTC) in securing private sector participation
in its activities. http://www.ostp.gov/PCAST/pcast.html
Things are changing so rapidly, long-term in changing its meaning. We have learned to manage some global issues but not their interdependency. We are not cross-referencing the global issues.
The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC is a good example of integrating global long-term perspectives in decisionmaking and an innovation in the use of science in policy making.
We need hybrids of government, business, NGOs, and international organizations as this is how decisions will be made it the future. NGOs are more likely to have global long-term perspectives and hence their addition to the mix should improve decisionmaking. The International Standards Organization in a business NGO that has changed business policies around the world.
A new actor is global public option, which rises up from time to time in examples like the land mine treaty and the Kyoto Protocol. With the increasing role of global public option and multi-national corporations, the time has been shorted. It used to take ten years to negotiate a treaty that would be set at the lowest common goal. Increasingly the higher goal is set and global public option is marshaled to get support. The land mine treaty was a lofty goal, which only took 14 months to negotiate.
The U.S. tends to assume an adversarial relationship between business and government, while Europe tends to assume appropriate roles can be achieved through cooperative planning. It is not clear which approach to policy creates more progress. For example, you can’t buy hurricane insurance in Florida, in Europe insurance companies say government has to do something about environmental change so that we can provide insurance.
The Nation-State is not necessarily the right location for all political decision. Some should be more local, while others should be more regional or international. States are retreating from their policy role with the trends of privatization. Corporations have an increasing role to play, but their culture tends to say it doesn’t make social policy. Privatization may have gone too far in health care, schools, and prisons. U.S. is not looking for the right balance. Markets can do good things, but have to include full cost accounting. Government tax policy can do go things, if it lifts taxes on income and taxes bad practices instead; e.g. tobacco.
Historically, the United States has led the way or has been a major player in establishing new trade zones (NAFTA, MECUSER, EU). Now, the balance of power is shifting to broader global voices. There is also a predominance of multinational corporations whose influence and knowledge of multiple, global locations should be harnessed for the overall improvement of policymaking.
The USA as a technologically dynamic society that has a special responsibility for systems analysis, futures research, and technology assessment.... The region is led by powerful elites, supported by an upper middle-class, neither of which can properly constrain current greed in favor of long-term benefits.
Citizens are actively involved with other cultures through exchange programs, business, the Internet, and more in the U.S. and the Canada.
The short-term focus of the current President is significant for the U.S. and the international community. If his performance leads to a continuation of short-term, reactive, unfocused policies by his successors, the world may be in real trouble. Building a long-term perspective is probably more difficult in the US than anywhere else in the world. The US is young and has an of invincibility that will make it difficult to develop long-term policy that places global interest at the same level or above regional interests. An “Act locally think globally” attitude needs to be established.
This is a significant challenge for Ontario because the current government has done very well with short-term policy (robust economy, reduced taxes), but possibly at the expense of long-term well-being (environment, child development, social services).
Academic institutions need to incorporate global perspectives into everything taught. Regarding this, North America should be the world leader in concern for global and long-term perspectives.... American and Canadian decisions can serve as major examples. People should all recognize futures studies ("future-oriented studies" in UNESCO's term) as a valuable, responsible, scholarly and scientific field of study. The establishment of futurist courses in secondary, higher and continuing education is pertinent.
In the US education will help, but there are more fundamental barriers, partially related to the American version of capitalism and public apathy. Yet, there are realms of hope, such as the Communities of the Future and other movements like that. The hope is that they are reaching critical masses, although the masses are pretty blasé about things.
Furthermore, "offices of emerging issues" for chiefs of state or heads of government should be created. These offices are designed to anticipate likely critical challenges resulting from scientific and technological developments as well as their effects on the human and natural environments. They should also be charged with other areas of global concern arising from extraterrestrial events.... Washington politicians are behind in all this.... Every demonstrable crisis must be used to the maximum-- reason alone does not generate major change in the minds of policy makers.
Top of the PageBrief overview Suggested Actions Indicators Detailed discussion on this challenge in the 2001 State of the Future
AFRICAAfrica Asia and Oceania Europe Latin America North America
There is an African attitude toward power that the “winner-takes-all" controls of society's wealth and resources, and to the power of patronage and the prerogatives of office…. In many instances, it is coupled with appalling violations of fundamental rights and a readiness to resort to force to resolve disputes or hold on to power.
Tribal decisions are made by consensus (which can delay decisions) or by authoritarian regimes (which defeats democracy and enrages other parties). Only years (generations) will create the confidence necessary for players to trust in decision makers and will create the mechanisms and specialization necessary for one institution be responsible for its own decisions.
NGO culture is not well developed and the civil society is not well organized to serve as a watchdog on governments, weak capacity of governments, unattractive civil service salaries and working conditions, massive brain drain.
The Chapter 2 Network is a clearinghouse of information and communication
for social justice issues in South Africa. Through its website, it provides
information about advocacy campaigns; training on Advocacy and lobbying,
including learning practical skills through the Advocacy game; research
on political intelligence, policy analysis and legislation monitoring and
networking opportunities to interact with other civil society organizations
who are engaged in social justice advocacy. <www.advocacy.org.za/>
Decisionmaking can be improved by civil service reform, accountability
of government, capacity building, and democratization of the decision making
process.... Enhancing the features of a culture of dialogue and negotiation....
Developing democratic practices and freedom of the press.... by mobilizing
and engaging nationals, adopting participatory decisionmaking practices,
and reversing the brain drain.
ASIA and OCEANIA
Poor governance, the Asian Development Bank says, has contributed to
regional poverty, as ineffective governments are unlikely to make physical
and social infrastructure investments.
The drift of ad-hocism and status-quoism appears to be the regional systemic disease.... Irrational decisions often have roots in politically and religiously driven motives. Civil society is a long way off.... There is a lack of individual responsibility, and a shortage of carefully screened information, and too much misleading information.
To turn this around we need to focus on improving the quality of decisionmakers, increase mutual understanding and better management styles to prevent regional conflicts, and develop a regional development plan via regional participatory systems
Japan needs collective approaches and long-term views. In Australia we should have flat hierarchies with consultative decisionmaking. Command and control methods are no longer tolerated.... The issue of decisionmaking in the face of uncertainty is one that has led to considerable policy discussions in the South Pacific region.
Pakistan urgently needs pragmatic visionary futurists, pacifists and people of thought and action… In Pakistan, civil society represented by NGOs, CBOs and individual academics, professionals and university students, walked out from the World Bank's so-called 'public consultation' on its Country Assistance Strategy held at NIPA, Karachi on May 17th, 2001. “Civil society participants pointed out that a genuine public consultation had to start with a public debate for the purpose of setting out an agenda and priorities after assessing World Bank's track record, and not to rubber-stamp pre-planned programs.”
They claimed that at least three important issues needed to be discussed before anything else, if the consultations have to address the real problems that the loan-supported programs face. These issues are: find out the real reason of the failure of a large number of Bank supported projects and programs; the reason of hiring foreign consultants when local expertise is available; international tendering where local construction firms are capable of delivering; and Bank procurement procedures, as these “stifle professional and entrepreneurial development in Pakistan and increase costs by many hundred per cent”; and results of the consultations that are meaningful and owned by the NGOs, citizens and Church Based Organizations (CBOs). (http://www.brettonwoodsproject.org/topic/adjustment/a22pakistanwalkout.htm)
Institutions in India should have interactions with expert guidance.... There is a need for more enlightened public policy thinking and making, and attention to non-sustainable practices and trends, and alternative development trajectories.... Develop formal and informal education and speed up the process of democracy, participation, and legislation.
In the poorer sections we need advice from international organizations like World Bank and experts from developed countries, the establishment of high-quality policy making in institutions of the government,
Build up national and international "Improvement Infrastructure(s)" by adopting the "Bootstrap" strategy (as proposed by Doug Engelbart, within which a focus on "improving on improvement strategies" is an integral part). Leverage information technology to improve on both education technology and accessibility to education Leverage on information technology to enhance knowledge management and make it available for decision support purposes to improving the ability of policy makers.
The solution adopted in Australia relates to the use of assessment techniques. Decisions that incorporate an explicit assessment are considered to be more informed than those that do not. Such assessments include: Environmental impact assessments, social impact assessments (of new legislation), risk assessments.
The factors that lead to good decisions include increasing the degree
of citizen participation in decisionmaking, transparency of public and
private institutions, and education that encourages thinking.
EUROPE
The new forms of democratic political participation including some
ways of direct democracy ought to be proven and established. From the holistic
perspective in spite of all the legitimate objections to the UN organizations,
they are still the only basis, which can be transformed into a means for
global governance.
Keeping in mind the complex interrelationships that exist today between the manifold dimensions of peace and security, of economic and human-centered development and of. environmental sustainability, our approach to the institutional challenge will have to be more comprehensive than in the past. The new challenges in dealing with the global agenda require new inter-sectoral, inter-disciplinary, broad-based institutional responses. (H.E. Dr. Thomas Klestil Federal President of the Republic of Austria)
The participation of the civil society is significant for the relevance of the UN. Its input is needed in all UN activities. Non-governmental organizations have played a crucial role in setting the global agenda. This participation must be extended to the civil society as a whole, including parliaments, the private sector and business community. Their representatives could be included in official UN delegations, like Finland does. Wide international cooperation among all actors brings the UN closer to 'we the peoples'. I commend the Secretary-General for his initiatives to include the civil society organizations. Strengthening the United Nations requires new ways of support. The Secretary-General presents in his report "We the peoples" an excellent blueprint for the UN. (H.E. MS. Tarja Halonen President of the Republic of Finland, Co-President of the Millennium Summit)
If we are to build a world order that meets the needs of our times, we must strengthen and improve the coexistence of global institutions such as the IMF, the World Bank, the WTO and, first of all, the UN. (Jacques Chirac, President of the French Republic)
Improving decisionmaking is especially important now in the context of increasing enlargement of EU and NATO.
Education, education, education. Effective learning is the only vehicle that will ensure that change has a reasonable chance of being progress. Although there is much greater emphasis on learning society, it is not really taken seriously.... One challenge is to use scientific expertise in handling the complexity of new findings in natural, technical and social sciences. Taking of decisions under impacts of the long-term developments is another. Ability of transferring big strategic issues in everyday politics of small practical steps is still another one.
Use decision support tools like situation rooms. Think twice and more times from different angles.
The establishment of a new Parliamentary structure in Scotland in May 1999 will remove the democratic deficit, which has been experienced over many years, and encourage more participation and openness in the governance of Scotland as a nation. The creation of a unicameral legislative Parliament will enable the politicians to advance unique solutions to social and economic problems to match the geographical factors of a dispersed population with some of the worst features of social deprivation currently experienced anywhere in Europe. This is a challenge for the early years of the next century as the Parliament applies its considerable statutory powers to addressing these problems.
Visionary leadership is another area where we need improved decisionmaking. We need a better understanding of the differences and synergies between opportunistic, strategic and visionary leadership.
Europe is searching its new identity internally and in relation to the world as a whole. This makes the situation unique for her with all the problematic areas like Russia, Yugoslavia, etc.... Strengthening of participatory democracy, guaranteeing the voice of minorities, and poor people to be heard are focal in fighting the new poverty and the disappearance of cultural diversity.
This issue is the same wherever we are in the world.
One way is to develop and improve the scientific background of decision-making. Special European problem is to embark upon necessary structural reforms to improve scientific performance and to force political elites to work more effectively with scientific expertise.
The more regions live on other resources and are densely populated or under environmental strain, the more we have to compare alternative modes of thinking and action. Europe needs to pay more attention to weighing the alternatives.
New technologies may facilitate direct democracy, as will public/media monitoring of the governing process, and much more extensive use of specialists in government. We need to develop new media literacy, multi-cultural literacy, and modes of participation; e.g., local partnership and other forms such as strengthening the influence of NGOs.
Economical and business lobbies more than by citizens’ interests influence policy in Central Europe.... Poor parliamentary and governmental decisions are made due to low levels of education and knowledge...transition economies need public discussion of new development concepts.... There is, by far, enough capacity, but there is lack of willingness or interest... We have to learn the process of democracy and the market. Surprisingly in some countries the process has gone quite fast.
Decisions can be improved by including long-term perspectives, public control of mechanisms, increased involvement of more educated people, and ways to manage the clash of interests. There is a common feeling of 'bad decisions epoch' behind us. The great expectations before are vanished and a pocket is empty. The people vote perhaps for more cautious politicians now.
Promote transparency, forecasting, long views, principles of the rule of law, democratic relationships between the government and oppositions, research centers, and NGOs.... Create regional environmental action programs.... The education level of officials and politicians is low and they lack knowledge of the newest information techniques.
Develop civic society able to observe the rules of law and to control the authorities.... Improve access to information, to be more transparent, broader perspectives, and allow public participation.
NGOs in Slovakia were unable to get IMF’s conditions for loans to their country. Bankwatch Network (BwN) and Friends of the Earth - Slovakia (FoE-S) have released a report on May 2001 entitled, "A Thorny Path Towards IMF Documents" which reveals the untransparent practices of the IMF in Slovakia. According to BwN and FoE-S the most important action is that the IMF immediately stop the implementation of standardized conditions, which ignore cultural, natural and social diversity around the world. Along with this it must initiate a transparent, participatory and independent process for full environmental and social impact assessments of past IMF programs and seriously implement the lessons from such assessments. http://www.bankwatch.org/press/2001/press55.html
It seems to me that our country has a lot of problems, some of which come out of the fact that we lack basic, commonly accepted set of moral and ethical values. It is partly caused by the reality that we live an incredible transition from communism to democratic society. This, combined with the issues of the globalized world, presents a set of so far everyday situations which have not been experienced before. People are not prepared... “Correct decisions" are those decisions that are in concordance with commonly accepted ethical values. Our current society respects success (read: richness) no matter how a person reached that "success". We need to bring-up the generation that will understand ethics, will behave according to ethical values, and will be able to accept responsibility for its actions, be they good or bad.… Being ethical is easy where one generally does not need to constantly question the level of fairness of their partner sitting in front of them.
Countries in transition want to be accepted in the EU so much they will
follow whatever policies the EU suggests.
LATIN AMERICA
The new definitions of the role and modernization of State management
have been strategic points on the public agenda throughout Latin American
and the Caribbean region. The social and political situation is demanding
a new qualitative scale of State intervention. A strong foundation upon
which to build in the years to come requires us to look beyond financial
solutions, to include both the social and the structural aspects, and to
think of development in human terms.
True leadership involves practice, education, and risk taking. It is a real pity that political leaders and candidates are not required to pass exams, lie detector tests, nor MMIP tests.
In Latin America the problem seems to be one more of faith and involvement
of the people. Is it a correct decision if there is a 'method morality'
that sanctions the correctness of decisionmaking? Correct decisions must
be good, courageous, and anticipatory.
NORTH AMERICA
U.S. National Intelligence Council Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About
the Future With Nongovernment Experts: States will continue to be
the dominant players on the world stage, but governments will have less
and less control over flows of information, technology, diseases, migrants,
arms, and financial transactions, whether licit or illicit, across their
borders. Nonstate actors ranging from business firms to nonprofit organizations
will play increasingly larger roles in both national and international
affairs. The quality of governance, both nationally and internationally,
will substantially determine how well states and societies cope with these
global forces.
Globalization will increase the transparency of government decision-making, complicating the ability of authoritarian regimes to maintain control, but also complicating the traditional deliberative processes of democracies. Increasing migration will create influential diasporas, affecting policies, politics and even national identity in many countries. Globalization also will create increasing demands for international cooperation on transnational issues, but the response of both states and international organizations will fall short in 2015.
Globalization and technological change are raising widespread expectations that increased international cooperation will help manage many transnational problems that states can no longer manage on their own. Efforts to realize such expectations will increase, but concerns about national interests as well as the costs and risks involved in some types of international activism will limit success. International cooperation will continue to increase through 2015, particularly when large economic stakes have mobilized the for-profit sector, and/or when there is intense interest from nonprofit groups and networks.
Being 'more sensitive to global long-term perspectives' seems directly related to the ability 'to make correct decisions.' …. Recognize futures studies or, ("future-oriented studies" UNESCO's term) as a valuable, responsible scholarly and scientific field of study. Encourage the establishment of such courses on the secondary and higher education levels - and as continuing education throughout life. This has a similar rationale.... Put systems thinking into education. The whole process will take years.
Improve decisionmaking through increased awareness of sustainability issues via education, role models, how-to forums, and use of incentives (including regulations, taxes, and credits).
Vote for candidates in local state and national elections who are knowledgeable about local, national, and global issues and have given credible approaches meeting specific challenges…. Ideally, get decisionmakers with appropriate educational background, good decisionmaking track record, and leadership ability.
Have we ever seen such a spate of terrible decisionmaking in a US president as we have seen over the past year or so? We must move from cause-effect, single-issue problem analysis to integrated, holistic vision and problem solving.... and use futures research, systems thinking, and technology assessment.... The key significance for the US is two-fold, one, is there enough time to do so, and two, how to get an apathetic public involved.
Improve decisionmaking process by involving more people and considering a wide array of aspects; e.g., the social science, as well as the physical science, aspects.... USA decisions affect the whole world.
Education in the region is high, but political and business leaders and general populace are all naive about science, meaning of risk probabilities and degree to which a leader can "do something." There exists too high an expectation that complex things can be resolved by magic. In fact, belief (hope?) in easy, magical solutions seems to be growing, as problems are becoming less and less amenable to simple definition or solution.
We should educate the citizens and the formal leaders in what is needed to gain sustainability and to build on the community, utilizing of existing and the generation of new information, provide training and improved public communications and access to information.
We need more education at all levels: general education, movies & TV and any other widespread communications media, including value clarification at all societal levels. This must tie in to definitions of "human interest". There is much talk in industrialized nations of risk-based decisionmaking. Before that can become more than a catch-phrase national societies and world society must arrive at consensus definitions of acceptable risks across a wide range of hazards, whether economic, physical, military, environmental, health, etc. Reductions in economic instability will allow people to behave more rationally than when under stress to produce miracles for their nations or families.
In the political process, no decisions are made in a vacuum. All of the issues involved are interconnected. Crime, for example, is interconnected with education, and education with energy. Sustainable development involves energy and water, and the balancing between haves and have-nots, whether on a global or state basis. This balancing involves more than just the competition for available money, it also involves a conflict between points or view and self-interests.
The trade-off between short-term and long term-benefits and costs is also a political quagmire. The political process - at the national or local level - favors the short term, even when it is clear that the short-term decision will be more costly in the long term. The media have a key role and responsibility. They go for conflict, sound bytes. Would be nice if there was someway for the media to educate the public on what needs to be done.
People of average means find it impossible to have their voice heard because the big stake holders - oil companies, labor unions - have the big money for campaign funding. Even though people may make political contributions through such organizations, they are not there to represent a broad base, but rather to foster a point of view that is in their self-interest. Our political process is harmed by not having public financing, and by the presence/possession of soft money.
The US leads by its overwhelming influence in the world.... US foreign policy should center on core national interests. Too much time in the last decade, has been spent on dissipating US resources on areas that are important for humanitarian reasons but that have dubious impact on US national interests.
The US must stay focused on ensuring that relations with key countries of the world - i.e., Russia, China, India - are thoroughly well managed. This includes realizing that the situation with China is different from the one with the Soviet Union. China is a problem in terms of international security and power, as it is a growing power.
The capacity to make correct decision can be improved by accepting, supporting, and allowing individuals from all walks of life to contribute their intelligence and leadership ability, without prohibition. Yet, it will be difficult to get this information, gained from human potential, to all classes of people everywhere. Leading encompasses diagnosing the challenges you are faced with properly. Today, that includes understanding globalization. It is not possible to plan from top down without opening up to the outside and integrating into the international economy.
The political system shouldn’t encourage/let only rich people to run for office. How can this be changed?…. The rank and file are turned off. The people and organizations that contribute money want some kind of upper hand.
Change comes when the public gets up in arms. There is a remarkable lack of training among politicians, training in decisionmaking, morals, and conflict resolution. Now there are a lot of conferences, but the examples set by existing politicians lead new ones down other paths. You see leaders who control the legislative processes so as to give their constituents something special.
The changing nature of work in the US is being influenced by trends toward shorter term jobs, with overtures for who is responsible for lifelong learning; enriched lifetime "work" experiences, stretching way beyond traditional retirement ages (55-65); broadened definitions of "work" to engage community service, volunteer services (possibly paid), and diverse educational activities; and need for new pay schemes to sensibly compensate those "work" activities that society really values.
Top of the PageBrief overview Suggested Actions Indicators Detailed discussion on this challenge in the 2001 State of the Future
AFRICAAfrica Asia and Oceania Europe Latin America North America
At the initiative of the States of Central Africa, my country [Gabon] will have the honor to house the headquarter for the early warning system, as an instrument of conflict prevention in the sub-region. (H.E. El Hadj Omar Bongo, President of the Republic of Gabon)
The proliferation of conflict complexes in Africa highlights the need for peace processes to include a regional perspective, as in Central Africa, the most conflict-dense region in the world.
World Refugee Survey 2000 of the U.S. Committee for Refugees found that the bulk of the world's uprooted are in Africa - an estimated 13.7 million. Sudan alone accounts for one of every nine of the world's uprooted people, with 4.4 million out of their homes.
Out of two dozen or more conflicts raging around the world, roughly half are in Africa. Fifteen sub-Saharan African countries are currently faced with exceptional food emergencies. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo alone, over 10 million people's food supplies are threatened by civil strife.
Analysts warn that a mix of ethnic, religious and regional tensions in Nigeria have the potential to destabilize the government and to bring the army back into play. (The Economist, The World in 2000).
African countries with inequality between ethnic and religious groups are more likely to have internal conflicts than rich ones and require humanitarian assistance. As of 1st January 2000, there were 6.2 million people of concern to UNHCR in Africa out of an estimated 22.3 million worldwide. The Africa figure includes 3.5 million refugees, 1.7 million internally displaced and 0.9 million former refugees who have recently returned home. In January 1999, the global number of people of concern to UNHCR was 21.5 million, of whom 6.3 million were in Africa.
15 of the 53 countries in Africa are afflicted by armed conflict (1999). Although these conflicts appear to have been triggered by environmental insecurity (degradation), they surfaced as ethnic disagreements, religious and border clashes.
Ethnic conflict will exist as long as there are different ethnicities. Mixing will alleviate the problem. Terrorism will always exist (weren't the followers of Jesus considered terrorists by the Romans?) The idea is to reduce the reasons for followers to become terrorists. Yet even within ethnic groups like the Somali people, rival clans can locked in revenge killings indefinitely.
The unique perspective and contributions of a country like Egypt rests in its long history and living in harmony with others. Minorities such as Armenians, Albanians, Greeks all co-lived with Egyptians.
The dispute between the Arabs and the Israelis will not remain forever, it will be resolved. A solution might take few years to come, but the final and just settlement is inevitable. Nevertheless the parties concerned are so obsessed by the complexities of the dispute, disregarding then geopolitical map of the Middle East after establishing the peace. Why such obsession? It is due to the fact that the gap between the parties concerned is still wide. Out of its superior military power, Israel wants to enforce the terms of the solution. A matter which is obvious in the three big No’s she sets namely: No return of the refugees, No withdrawal to the boundaries pre the 1967 war, No return of East Jerusalem to be the capital of the Palestinian state. Israel rejects the full withdrawal from the Syrian Golan heights.
The Arabs on the other hand insist that no settlement will be acceptable unless it is fair, based on the UN relevant resolutions. Out of this gap the Palestinians resist and the Israelis use all sorts of its military machine power to destroy their resistance including massacres, sealing of their territories, encirclement and starvation. But violence breeds violence, hatred and terrorism on both sides. Within such critical atmosphere, envisaging the future relations between the Arabs and the Israelis after peace is almost nil. And this is actually the challenge.
The value system approach might be relevant here to contemplate the future Arab-Israeli relations once peace is at hand. It is relevant in the sense that if the parties concerned agreed upon the values that would govern their future links, turning peace into cooperation in various areas would be feasible and tangible.
Two basic values might be highlighted in this context: mutual respect and partnership. Being a good neighbor is based upon mutually recognized and respected boundaries, normalization of the relations, and tolerance in terms of accepting the other regardless of the origin, culture or creed. The other principal value is partnership. In the sense that all parts in the Middle East would share common goal that is enhancing regional development and stability. Adopting those values would allow the parties to mobilize human and natural resources within coordinated plans, projects and institutions.
Regional views might be considered are to deal with issues which constitute the geopolitical map of the Middle East. Among these are the following:
1. The scarcity of water resources might lead to rising of new regional conflict. The seeds of that conflict already exist such as the dispute between the Palestinian authority and Israel over water resources in the West Bank, and that, between Syria and Israel on one hand and Turkey on the other, over the distribution of Euphrates and Degla water resources. The struggle over water should be settled in accordance with international conventions and in the spirit of cooperation through the best technological methods to be used in order to maximize resources and to rationalize consumption particularly with regard to irrigation.
2. Freeing the Middle East from mass destructive weapons. The current situation of Israel’s acquisition of Nuclear Weapons is indeed an invitation for other states in the area to do the same. It is serious game that we should avoid. The initiative of President Mubarak should be implemented.
3. Middle Eastern cooperation shouldn’t overshadow Pan-Arabism. The two tracks should be developed in parallel. The Arab League ought to remain the home of the Arabs particularly with regard to fostering inter-relationships.
4. Environment is an issue of interest for all parties in the region. Cooperation in this context is essential.
5. Economic cooperation in terms of investment, Banks, Trade , Information technology and joint projects are vital in order to secure development and progress . The more regional development is enhanced, the less the chances of militancy and terrorism to exist.
6. The regional agreement over media code of conduct would allow tolerance to prevail especially in the sense of cultural diversity as a source of enrichment and mutual respect.
7. Coordination between the principal regional powers in the area (Egypt, Turkey and Iran) is a stepping-stone towards stability in the area.
An unending series of conflicts has left Africa rife with landmines, UN experts said, estimating the total on the continent at 53.6 million. A European Union-sponsored workshop on the Third UN Conference on the Least Developed Countries identified Egypt as the most affected country, with 23 million landmines buried in its soil. Other heavily affected countries include Angola, Ethiopia, Liberia, Mozambique and Sudan.
There are lots of ethnic problems, which are not
being resolved, but there are few terrorist problems.... Our focus in Africa
has to be on conflict resolution and building sustainable peace by enhancing
mutilateralism through cultural, educational, and social means.
ASIA and OCEANIA
After the disintegration of the USSR Kazakhstan
inherited a huge arsenal of nuclear weapons. Our country has set a precedent
by a voluntarily renouncing this arsenal. That is why today we again call
on all nuclear-weapon states to take concrete steps to eliminate nuclear
arms. (Nursultan A. Nazarbaev, President of Kazakhstan)
The collapse of economic stability has brought attendant political and social unrest in Indonesia (Timor, Kalimantan, and Aceh), the Philippines, and Malaysia, which form the basis for ethnic conflict and locally based terrorism. The range of inter-communal violence, based on ethnic groupings, religion and political allegiance, has grown dramatically during the last few years. The region has significant ethnic individualism, which if unchecked and fueled, could lead to long-term destabilization.... Ethnic and religious tensions are deep-seated and erupt from time to time. The recent ethnic violence (carefully orchestrated) in Indonesia, targeted mainly at the Chinese, is worrying.
In these times of unjust and incompetent governance, urbanization and mass interaction free people allows for some to take law in their own hands. They believe that they are fighting for a just cause, that modern progress has not given them enough. The ideological basis of modern economic and social structure has no appeal for them and they are ready to lay their lives. The Third World in general has adopted the ideology of nationalism as it had involved in Europe and U.S. This ideology had greatly helped imperial conquest of the 18th & 19th centuries. Now the populations of poor countries without technical or scientific superiority and economic resources want act as little imperialists vis-a-vis each other and use the concept of “ nation” without restraint. All causes become national causes worth killing others and being killed , hating your neighbor and becoming a martyr in the national cause. The religion of imperial nationalism needs to be understand and replaced by peace promoting ideologies.
Continued conflict over Kashmir and the nuclear tests conducted by India and Pakistan heightened the risk of war and the nuclear risk in South Asia.
The Prime Minister of India warned: Of the many other threats to peace, democracy and development, none has become as dangerous as international terrorism, with its links to religious extremism, drug trafficking and the commerce in illicit arms. India calls for united global action against these dangers. We urge the international community to quickly adopt and implement the Comprehensive Convention Against Terrorism that will be negotiated at the UN General Assembly session that follows this Summit.
The security situation in the Caspian Sea Basin has the potential to become another "hot spot" in world politics because of the competition over vast oil and gas reserves, the involvement of other countries in Caspian regional affairs, and the local conflicts in areas around the oil and gas transportation routes.
Active involvement of regional security systems in the processes of maintaining stability and security could also help take the edge off the problem of humanitarian intervention. With their assistance and the support of the Security Council, many conflicts can be resolved without gross interference into the internal affairs of sovereign states. (H.E. Mr. Nursultan A. Nazarbaev President of the Republic of Kazakhstan)
There is no strategic thinking at the national level; as a result, Japan has become a heaven of terrorists and gangs.
Celebrate other cultures and religions festivals collectively.... Understand each one’s culture and faith.
The ASEAN Regional Forum was created to resolve regional conflicts, including concern over the Spratly and adjoining islands. There is a place for internationally concerted attempts (particularly involving the US and China) to ensure regional stability.
To carry out the policy of ethnic equality and respect ethnic conventions and take strong measures against terrorism activities... The need to define and popularize shared values and strategies and relate them to the people's real life interests, issues, and needs.
The development of improved political models at the local and international levels, are essential. At the national level, the old International Relations theories of Classical Realism (of states, rational goals and military force) must be evolved to be more accepting of the threats recognized in Practical Idealism (environmental threats, social turmoil, economic collapse etc). At the local level, current models of politics could be replaced by stakeholder analysis. An example is the use of modern tourism planning models (of stakeholder analysis, identification of issues and emphasis on win-win scenarios) in the region. Such models allow integration and resolution of a variety of competing interests.
It is imperative to exert maximum effort to increase
the effectiveness of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty by implementing
the warranty system of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and making
it global. We are of the opinion that controls and standards should be
set up to help make progress in all areas of eliminating weapons of mass
destruction in accordance with United Nations Resolution Number I of 1946.
(His Royal Highness, Prince Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud, Crown Prince
of Saudi Arabia)
EUROPE
...even the full implementation of the Brahimi
report will not be enough to prevent tragedies such as those experienced
in Rwanda, Srebrenica or Somalia. We will still be confronted with the
difficulty of recruiting troops and with a late deployment on the ground.
We must go further in our thinking. We need a new concept for peacekeeping.
This new concept implies creating regional peacekeeping capabilities permanently
ready for deployment. These capabilities, of a brigade-size force, would
be set up by the States of a Region and would be supported materially and
financially by the United Nations. The European Union is in the process
of creating a rapid reaction force that will be operational in 2003. In
a way, this new concept comes down to trying to generalize this initiative
by setting up a rapid reaction force in each region of the world. However,
it implies in no way the disengagement of Western countries. On the contrary,
besides their own rapid reaction forces, these countries should help to
finance equipment and training of these regional peacekeeping capabilities
under the control and the responsibility of the United Nations. (H.E. Mr.
Guy Verhofstadt Prime Minister of Belgium)
Not so long ago, Ukraine made an unprecedented step by renouncing its third world's largest nuclear arsenal. (H.E. Mr. Leonid Kuchma, President of Ukraine)
A new security can be achieved if the relicts of the cold war thinking of political and economical elites will be changed or suppressed. The idea that "NATO expansion should include Russia and Ukraina" is a fully reasonable and realistic one because the degradation of Russia is a problem of a global interdependence. The Human Rights standards ought to be reflected as a part of transcultural ethics. The threat of the collapse of economic stability worldwide and the problem of refugees are the challenge, which can be solved only by effective global governance. Respect for multicultural diversity is one of the important tasks: will the new world be unipolar or multipolar? The first alternative is very risky.
There are no barriers to terrorism. There are many different kinds of terrorism all over Europe. It can strike in the rich countries like in the poor. Yet, the 21st century holds the prospect of Europe without war for the first time.... The EU has to be surer of itself in order to be an ideal worth imitating for those countries; whilst the US is too far away.
The Amsterdam charter adopted by the European Union in 1997 had given member states the ability to work more closely on issues such as terrorism.
After the British military attaché in Athens was shot, Greece proposed to Britain a European Union initiative to combat terrorism. A similar agreement for increased police cooperation with the United States was ready to be signed, Foreign Ministry spokesman Panos Beglitis said. Since 1975 Terrorist group November 17 killed 22 people - including four American officials - using pistols, bombs and anti-tank missiles in its attacks. But none of its members have ever been caught. Greece was doubling its reward to $2.8 million for information leading to the arrest of November 17 members. The United States has already offered $4 million for such information.
Germany announced that the government would ponder a report which has proposed drastic cuts in the present German army and a much bigger rapid-reaction force.
Ethnicity is not a problem per se but only if it is related with socio-economic polarization. Ethnicities are artificially created or enforced to justify exploitation and aggression.
...effect of hate fed by differences on any kind: differences which, as we well know, are not the cause underlying conflicts but a means to manipulate the masses. (Stipe Mesic, President of Croatia)
Shared values create loyalty among people wanting to live in peace and to adapt and tolerate each other. As such, it ruins the base of support for those wanting violent fights and selfish pursuit of their interest.... Shared values alone will not do it, who wants to share wealth? The Balkan as well as the European East is full of ethnic conflict and terrorism. But in order to overcome them, more than better living, etc. is necessary. A new culture is necessary.
Ethnic conflict in ex-socialist countries and associated with the refugees and migration to Europe or within Europe are serious problems and the source of conflicts are not managed well anywhere.
Expectations are generating new potential instabilities.... Incoming refugees from other cultures cause adjustment problems to the original population. The refugees have difficulties in getting jobs and places in the community.
Operating an active democracy combined with an inclusive approach.... Improve European police collaboration.... Greater emphasis on 'values' education, but 'inclusive' policies are needed to ensure that minorities are included as widely as possible.
Education of the original population to acceptance of cultural diversity, and education of the refugees to the rules of the local society. The school and the media have a crucial role as well. Hence the need for continuous dialogue and positive influence from the media. The voluntary sector should be reinforced.
In Central Europe ethnic conflict with the Roma - Gypsy minority could become a real danger.
World peace without a system of global security is impossible. The contemporary nation-state system is extremely dangerous, and NATO cannot be the global security system. Today NATO is a space of stability; it is "civilization ghetto". The pressure on its boundaries will grow. Whatever new world order emerges will need the United Nations in a central role. Only the UN has mandate to manage global affairs. Not even the USA has the capacity resistance this trend forever. The growing power bloc of China-India-Russia will eventually compel the USA to coordinate its national interests more with the United Nations. The growing threats of terrorism and transnational organized crime cannot be reduced without a global decision mechanism. The contemporary state of the world is like a country with a central bank, but lacks a parliament and government. If we know that crime systems are globally organizing, we cannot fight against it with just coalitions of national politics and national interests. Political globalization is lagging behind economic globalization. This situation can be fatal for legal structures. We need to seek such structures, which are able to strengthen global decision process. We could also return to idea of international control of atomic weapons - this was proposed by USA in 1946. The realization of this idea was frustrated by cold war.
The Serb oppression of the ethnic Albanians in Kosovo (Yugoslavia) and the failure of peace efforts brought in 1999 the first NATO out-of-area military intervention and increased tensions in the Balkan region.
Minority conflicts, connected with obscure policies of state and mafia power, keep flaring up in Balkans, East Turkey, Southern Hungary, the Baltics and Caucasus in Europe. Conflict between different religions could aggravate the situation.
Vladimir V. Putin, President of Russian said that: “Today we have already succeeded in creating an efficient mechanism for disarmament. Its foundation comprises the 1972 ABM Treaty, regimes of non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and means for their delivery, dozens of the most important agreements on limitation and reduction of different armaments. We should reliably block the ways for spreading of nuclear weapons. We can achieve this by, inter alia, excluding usage of enriched uranium and pure plutonium in the world atomic energy production.” He also advocated to the UN Millennium Summit that the world needs an international conference aimed at preventing the deployment of weapons in space.
Russia did not know what terrorism meant before market reforms, and Russia is not experienced in this field.
Shared values are important to bring about peace, but not enough. A security strategy should focus on preventive measures such as: 1) Improving economic conditions; 2) forbidding violent television shows, especially those from the US as people try to copy the US and they teach your terrorist groups new ideas; 3) Teaching children that there are different religions, races, nations which should be respected; 4) Creating dialogues among various religious leaders who play influence attitudes to other countries and religious; 5) In context of the rebirth of nationalism and fascism it might be practical to popularize Fiehtvanger and Anna Segers books (German authors who describe the fascism emergency and suffering Germans from fascism), and many brilliant Russian films about the second war to show the consequences of extreme nationalism; 6) Mass media and Internet should be responsible for the providing a correct information about various conflicts. For example, many people worldwide do not know that children in Chechnya had no opportunity to go to school; federal government sent money for retied people, but they did not got this money; Chechnya people stole people and used them like slaves to do all dirty the work. But journalists from different countries had opportunities to come to Chechnya; and try to understand the problem as well as write about different parts of these complicated issue; 7) The first ethical norm should be the solution of any conflict in peaceful way, using dialogue, but not weapons. We should create the atmosphere worldwide that it is a shame to use weapons: 8) UN should play a more active role in peacekeeping. 9) Shift to non-lethal weapons; and 10) Since terrorists are often international teams that act globally, law enforcement should form international professional teams that counter globally.
Monitoring the character and potential expansion of the conflict could reduce ethnic and religious conflicts. Potential ways of stopping the conflict in the beginning are: 1) initiation of dialog of all participants on neutral territory with neutral mediators (regional, continental, global, transnational) accepted by all participants; 2) intervention by an international army contingent in the first arms clashes; 3) objective editing of messages by local media about both side of a conflict; and 40 an international media coverage of positive aspects of mediation process rather than just the brutal scenes of violence.
Extremely important is the creation of web pages that deals with conflict oriented towards: monitoring of conflict, evaluation of conflict, value orientations, reflections, reactions, and monitoring of world media about conflict.
A permanent monitoring capacity of the situation on all continents should be established, especially in areas of potential and latent conflicts for the purpose of creation of the atmosphere to prevent the conflicts by the activities of international community and by sending the experts and the observers.
In the USSR, under Breshznev, dozens of biological warfare installations were established & disguised as legitimate medical groups. As recently as 1990 total Soviet bioweapons spending was roughly $1 billion, relates Ken Alibek, manager of an extensive bioweapons research & development program. (Ken Alibek, BioHazard - the True Story of the Largest Covert Biological Weapons Program in the World)
The Russian Federation is unable to finance the planned destruction of some 40,000 tons of stockpiled chemical weapons and needs international help, according to the head of an agency set up to implement the global chemical weapons treaty.
Jose Bustani, director-general of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), warns that “unless the international community comes up with the necessary funds," the Russian stockpile could remain beyond April 2007, the deadline by which all countries are supposed to destroy their chemical weapons. Although exact figures are unavailable, the destruction of the Russian stockpile could cost an estimated $3 billion to $5 billion.
Last year, the United States and the European Union agreed to provide some money for the destruction of Russian chemical weapons, but the funds have not been forthcoming, reports Inter Press Service.
Potential ethnic and territorial conflicts can be stimulated if economic reforms are not successful. There is also a threat resulting from slow degradation of Russia. If the process is reversed, then perhaps the situation in the region will improve. Otherwise the prospects for Russia collapsing are still looming over the region.
Promote tolerance, global views, and education, plus the non-violent integration of minority groups into job opportunities and the educational system. Good ethnic minority policy, early warning system, education in the spirit of tolerance, better support of ethnic minorities such as the Gypsies.
This is a question of regional and/or global governance. First military conflict of NATO outside of its boundaries is a great challenge and gained experience still must be "absorbed". Breaking of national sovereignty without approval by U.N. Security Council could become a dangerous precedent, but on the other hand this is a very good signal to other (potential) dictators that they are not quite safe within national boundaries and they must respect some basic values and rules shared by global community. We are in the beginning of a qualitatively new process.
Our focus is the promotion of human rights and inter-ethnic tolerance, alongside the consolidation of regional security agreements. Care for more equal opportunity.... Just refugee and migration policies and minority rights as the social norm
Ethnic tensions will likely decrease unless two new phenomena occur: 1. Economic crises 2. Revival of nationalist feelings among the young generations in European countries which may feel endangered by European integration seen as a process of unification and losing identity. It concerns the present generations born in the 1970s and the 1980s. Although they profess the cult of professionalism, efficiency and globalization, it cannot be excluded that even under positive economic conditions their attitudes can change. In the case of economic crisis this tendency could be strengthened. The challenge is put in a somewhat confusing way: What is a new security strategy? Do you mean by that a new role for NATO as the only international power and master of the rules in the world game? Milosevic-like ethnic genocide will happen if the Trans-Caucasian countries will some day decide to fight another war against Russia. Will NATO feel morally obliged to intervene?
The poor-rich gap is not the real cause of conflict, though it may increase it. The fight for political power and general cultural and national (as a nationality, not nation-state) recognition is the problem. People of different nationalities are getting along very well, but there are the political, ideological extremists who instigate them by the media and other propaganda means.
Political leadership is crucial. The fact that these countries want to join the EU and NATO means that they have to adopt these organizations' ethical codes.
In spring 1999, Romania was a strong partner of the US and of NATO in the fight to stop Milosevic's ethnic cleansing in Kosovo. This wasn't easy, politically or economically, for Romania. But they did and their support helped shorten the conflict. Far more opportunities will come after democracy comes to Serbia. When that happens, for the first time in history, the potential of a peaceful, democratic and prosperous Balkans will be real.
Continuing expansion of international organizations' role as the EU, NATO is very important (positive, of course). So is the role of the NGOs.
Expand NATO membership including Russia and the
Ukraine.
LATIN AMERICA
With the authority to which we are entitled,
as the first major region of the world to be free of nuclear weapons, Latin
America and the Caribbean strives to create a world free of the nuclear
threat and of other weapons of mass destruction. We also expect the best
possible results of the International Conference on Small Arms and Light
Weapons to be held next year; and we condemn the use of excessively cruel
and inhumane weapons, especially those of an improvised or “home-made”
type. (Andrés Pastrana, President of Colombia and Pro Tempore Secretary
of The Group Of Rio)
Ethnic conflict is minimal in Latin America. There may be some conflicts - Indian conflicts - in México and Mayan regions in Central America, Ecuador, and Peru supported by underground networks in Europe and USA.
More than 6,000 children are fighting alongside guerilla groups in Colombia, according to a report released yesterday by the Colombian army. Some 2,000 of these children are younger than 15.
Shared values or dominant values? Security
strategies can end with the use of force, to destroy enemy and to destroy
their capability of reaction.... War in Colombia is active while their
military has their hands tied and the politicians are corrupt. Guerrillas
in Peru have strong sponsors abroad.
NORTH AMERICA
Canada, with the support of interested foundations,
is leading the establishment of an independent International Commission
on Intervention and State Sovereignty. Our Foreign Minister will shortly
outline the rationale and mandate of the Commission. (Jean Chretien, Prime
Minister of Canada)
The US should consider making sophisticated sensor information and/or sensor devices broadly available to populations in early conflict or other potential crisis situations with sufficient capability to reveal truth about the ongoing situation. In this way local people might act to help prevent further escalation and make the information available to the media.
However, the use of such surveillance technology to heighten a public’s awareness raises two questions: Can the information needed to give real time evidence of an unfolding world problem be gathered in ways acceptable to the majority of nations and, secondly, can such information be transferred to a target population so that it will be accepted and acted on?
With Internet portals available everywhere and radio-based sensing devices placed intentionally or fortuitously in the hands of the public, information about untoward events could become broad and instant knowledge. Until such Internet information is forthcoming, satellite or airborne overhead station-keeping sensors are required to gather real time relevant information. These, together with stand-off television transmitters, could broadcast the desired information to a target population. Since the U.S. maintains its intelligence systems to help prevent or guide war, making some of it public to help local populations mitigate or solve nearby problems seems eminently consistent. Such sophisticated sensors could also be used to report on environmental and food quality, progress of contagious diseases and epidemics, or any danger that early warning can abate.
The use of this surveillance technology and information should be controlled by the UN and operate under a UN task force for mobile collection, processing, and dissemination, as the most acceptable institution in matters where national sovereignty is threatened, large scale atrocities or inhumane acts are being anticipated or carried out, highly lethal weapons are being produced without the knowledge of the surrounding populace, and/or terrorist enclaves exist, also without the consent of the neighboring population. One could also imagine giving the equipment to news systems like CNN.
For example, prior to the extensive U.S. bombardment of Yugoslavia, there would have been an opportunity to document with imagery, the 24-hour operations of the Serbian troop action against the Kosovo Albanians and to rebroadcast that into unused Yugoslavian television channels. Such information, abetted by other first hand accounts from the ground or other sources, would have been informative to the average Yugoslav citizen. If the Government jammed such channels, then the U.S. could have selectively targeted the jammers and left other facilities and infrastructure alone. The objective would be to let the uninformed Yugoslavian citizen see first hand what was transpiring, hopefully this would have hastened the overthrow of the Milosevic Government. One would imagine that CNN, the BBC, or other international television networks would have willingly broadcast the information as well. This is not an expensive or inhumane proposition compared to war or even protracted regional conflict and is, therefore, worth examination. Making such information available over time should help lessen the need for international intervention.
Although the U.S. might agree to give up “first use” of nuclear weapons, it is not likely to agree to give up all its nuclear weapons.
As the availability of gene technology spreads, homemade biochemical weapons will be easier to make, and deadlier. The U.S. will spend $1.4 billion on anti-terrorist research.
U.S. National Intelligence Council warns that globalization might induce that “regions, countries, and groups feeling left behind will face deepening economic stagnation, political instability, and cultural alienation. They will foster political, ethnic, ideological, and religious extremism, along with the violence that often accompanies it.”
The USA, which accounts for more than one-third of world military expenditure, presented a defense budget plan which shows increased military expenditure during the next few years (The Economist, The World in 2000).... For the US to completely disarm, it would need an effective national missile defense (NMD) system, as it would no longer have a nuclear deterrent. But even a nuclear deterrent is no longer effective against a terrorist nuclear attack since there may be no culprit nation against which a reprisal nuclear strike can be launched.
The US must support the United Nations, pay its arrears, stop undermining UN mandates, and participate in UN revitalization.... Support a United Nations Security Insurance Agency to replace military weapons with insurance policies for rapid deployment of standing peacekeeping and humanitarian forces.
North America is a wonderful mixing bowl of cultures and interests. Education is the key to understanding and developing shared values.... Educational programs in schools, participation in civic activities, awareness of history and accomplishments of other ethnic groups, adherence to the print of a democratic society, respect for and confidence in the fairness and effectiveness of the legal system will make for a more peaceful world.... The new millennium may help lay aside the burdens of past historical wrongs and to forgive past mutual cruelties, injustices and antagonisms and manifest the wisdom to forget them.
Region is reasonably stable for a century owing to a large number of shared values, but this consensus is far less monolithic than many romantically believe.... The US is likely to experience increasing stress from terrorism and ethnic conflict.... There is a lack of demonstrated individual and group conviction to proactively address such issues.
Terrorism is not a big deal in the U.S: put terrorism in perspective - far more deaths from traffic accidents than terrorism.... Academic research to counter and understand terrorism should be supported and results made broadly available to the public.
The past is gone. We are powerless to alter it. Why should we remain slaves to its tyranny? The future is another matter. It is an open field of possibility. With forgiveness and forgetting, humanity can usher in the dawn of hope for all of earth's peoples. Such a change of mind, heart and will give rise to a universal ethical code honored and respected by all. Such a development could make "Earthlings" truly ready for contact with other worlds. While there is such hope, there is life.
World resource sharing and market economy must be made transparently beneficial and not merely colonialism by industrial countries in democratic clothing. Poor and uneducated people are not stupid. Justice has to be seen to be served. International bodies need to keep pressure on nations and multinational firms to treat ALL stakeholders fairly. Bilateral and multilateral programs need to create conditions wherein potentially conflicting parties experience real multiplier benefits of working together.
AFRICAAfrica Asia and Oceania Europe Latin America North America
Although transnational organized crime in Africa is not as large and sophisticated as it is in other regions, links between rebel factions and organized crime groups are increasing. The National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) and the Revolutionary United Front (RUF) in Sierra Leone both fund their war efforts using illegally mined diamonds. This is compounded by other African Nations supporting rebel groups in order to secure revenue from stolen diamonds. “Blood diamonds” help fuel conflicts in Angola, Sierra Leone and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and account for an estimated 4% of the $7 billion world trade. International efforts have begun to stop the trade as it has been recognized as a way to bring peace to these countries.
Child slavery also exists and should be seen as an activity of organized crime as well as a human rights issue. Parents are persuaded to let their children work temporarily in farms in more prosperous areas with the promise that money will be sent to them. However, the children are forced to work so hard that many get sick and die while imprisoned on these farms. Children have also been kidnapped in Mali and sent to work in Cote d'Ivoire's coca harvesting industry.
Corruption has permeated much of African society and is now perhaps the greatest limit to growth in many countries. For example, Nigeria is the center of international criminal activity exported from Africa. Nigerian syndicates have extensive networks in Western Europe, Russia, and Asia. Nigerian groups are responsible for the largest export of Asian heroin to the US. Financial fraud schemes are also prevalent in Nigeria often targeting the US and the UK.
South Africa is also a major hub for criminal activity. South Africa's harbors and container ports are used for narcotics trafficking and illegal firearms. Corruption is widespread in the police and a rise in ethnic based violence has led to poor law enforcement.
In general, smuggling groups for weapons, drugs, and endangered species
easily cross national borders in Africa. Some argue it is impossible to
counter these problems because governments and transnational crime are
too intertwined around the world. Africa could create other sources of
wealth, pay government employees better, rotate people in their posts (police
and enforcement agencies), and establish better collaboration amongst judicial
and enforcement agencies. We need international cooperation and a massive
campaign against narcotics and prostitution.
ASIA and OCEANIA
Southeast Asia is the world's main source of heroin and opium production.
Afghanistan, Myanmar, and Thailand produce virtually all the global supply
of heroin and opium. One UN report states that the ruling Taliban in Afghanistan
has wiped out some production, but another reporter stated that it was
a show for the UN while the major fields are still in production.
In conjunction with the UN Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention, the Thai government hosted the first-ever Asia-Pacific seminar on fighting international organized crime. Police, prosecutors, and academics from 22 Asian and Pacific nations discussed issues of money laundering, human trafficking, narcotics smuggling, and corruption.
Organized crime has been increasing and internationally interconnected in China accompanied with the rapid social and economic reform and development. Effective measures have to be taken before it becomes more powerful and sophisticated.
Sea piracy in the modern age remains a problem. The right of hot pursuit into neighboring waters remains unresolved. Recent joint involvement of Indonesian and Singapore Navy has been an encouraging development, however, more cooperation in the international community is necessary.
Organized crime is a major issue given low incomes from traditional economic activities and the potentially high returns from modern criminal activities, generally based on interacting with the global criminal economies. This is exacerbated by modern information and communication technology, which portrays the benefits of income countries and the consumer economy. The growth of the black markets and criminal economies directly degrade both national economic wealth and probity in government, judiciaries, and law enforcement activities. The unique significance is that the 'Asian way' tends to reinforce hierarchical control and loyalty to elders above ethics. Thus, the region is potentially set to establish rigid patterns whereby organized crime becomes endemic and reinforced by societal norms.
The Middle and Near East should create international cooperation in preventing mass production of narcotics, and promote interception at transit routes. Regional conflicts help organized crime to expand. Public education is helpful to counter the black economy. The more regional dialog and cooperation on this, the better.
Punishment should be given to both the offender and the abettor, as a deterrent.
An international institution for developing global cooperation against organized crime should be established.
The central focus in Australia is the development of ethics in education, supported by ongoing programs in all sectors of the government and the major private sector companies. It can also be prevented by removing restrictions on things that are so popular like drugs, and yet are illegal. This raised the temptation for criminal activity to make extraordinary gains from selling such things. The same would be true of sexual literature. Australia is restricting the production and sale of weapons more strictly, trying to provide good education, and social roles for people and community jus