Governance and Conflict

Global Challenges Excerpt from the 2010 State of the Future reports

This section includes regional views on the following challenges:

Democratization

How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? [Challenge 4]

Global Long-Term Perspectives

How can policy making be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives? [Challenge 5]

Capacity to Decide

How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions changes? Challenge 9]

Peace and Conflict

How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism and use of weapons of mass destruction? [Challenge 10]

Transnational Crime

How can transnational organized crime be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises? [Challenge 12]


Democratization

How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? [Challenge 4]

-- Regional Considerations --

Africa: Sub-Saharan Africa suffered significant declines, with coups in three countries, several questionable elections, and further deteriorations of the region's most repressive regimes—Eritrea and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Freedom House rated 9 of the 48 countries in the region "free," 23 "partly free," and 16 "not free." Establishing an East African Community might reduce ethnic tensions, improve regional security and stability, and create the basic conditions for democracy. African countries have yet to ratify the Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance adopted by the African Union in 2007. Improving citizenry and efficiently addressing despotism, corruption, sectarianism, violence, and patronage are basic prerequisites for building democracy across Africa. For the second year in a row, no winner was selected for the $5 million annual Ibrahim Prize for African leadership.

Asia and Oceania: Despite some progress, there are serious setbacks, such as flawed elections and increased oppression in Afghanistan, violent reprisal against civilians in Iran, Philippines, and Thailand, and various forms of censorship in China, Iran, and several other countries. Notably, successful elections took place in India, Indonesia, and Japan. Freedom House rated 16 of Asia's 39 countries as "free," 15 "partly free," and 8 (representing 43% of the region's population) as "not free." In the Middle East and North Africa, Israel remains the only country rated "free," 3 countries are "partially free," while 88% of the region's population lives in 14 "not free" countries. The Arab League could play an important role in improving democracy in this region. Central Asia remains one of the most repressive regions.

Europe: All 27 EU countries are rated "free." The region has the world's greatest press freedom and supports public participation in policymaking. However, an increasing number of immigrants from Africa and Asia and their poor integration challenge the region's tradition of tolerance and civil liberties. The binding mechanisms of the new EU asylum system are to be set up by 2012. In most Central and East European (non-EU) countries, the tendency toward autocracy, corruption, and lack of progressive institutions continues to hinder the democratization process; however, the Russian government began to more aggressively address corruption.

Latin America: Freedom House rated 23 countries in the region "free," 9 "partly free," and 1 "not free." Overall, the region suffered setbacks in 2009, particularly in Central America, where escalating violence by organized crime and other nonstate actors, as well as increasing abuse of power by some leaders, led to declines in civil liberties. The division of power is not well balanced with an independent judiciary in many countries, yet the policy advocacy role of civil society organizations is helping to strengthen democratic processes.

North America: The Freedom of the Press Act signed into law in 2010 requires that the U.S. Annual Country Reports on Human Rights Practices include information on freedom of the press in other countries. Concerns persist in Canada and the U.S. about the electoral processes, concentration of the media ownership, and powerful lobbies. There were nearly 14,000 registered lobbyists in the U.S. in 2009 and they spent a record $3.5 billion. The recent U.S. Supreme Court decision to allow greater corporate and union spending on election advertising could increase political corruption and undermine prospects for more transparency and citizen participation in decisionmaking. Anti-prorogation rallies across Canada raised concerns about the responsiveness of the government to the public. Because multinational corporations have gained so much power, their transparency and responsibility has become just as important as that of government, as seen in the BP oil spill and AIG financial decisions.

Graph: Global trends in freedom

Source: Freedom in the World 2010, Freedom House

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Global Long-Term Perspectives

How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives? [Challenge 5]

-- Regional Considerations --

Africa: Foresightfordevelopment.org makes research documents, projects, scenarios, people, and blogs available to support African futures research. China has become a force in African long-range planning. Daily management of many African countries makes future global perspectives difficult; hence, more regional bodies like the African Union and the African Development Bank are more likely to further futures work in Africa and should build on 10 years of work of UNDP/African Futures on incorporating long-term perspectives into mid- and short-term planning. Civil society is also becoming a bigger stakeholder and lobby in foresight.

Asia and Oceania: Since China tends to make decisions in a longer time frame than others, its increasing power and eventually that of India should lead to more global, long-term decision-making as these nations interact with the rest of the world on global issues. Japan includes private-sector companies in its long-term strategic planning unit. Informal networks of government future strategy units are forming with some initiatives from the Strategic Policy Office of the Prime Minister of Singapore.

Europe: Forecasts of migrations from Asia and Africa are forcing Europe to reassess its future, as are the EU2020 strategy, Lisbon Strategy, emergence of China, and forecasts of public finances for social and health services for an aging population. The rotating six-month EU presidency may have been necessary to enhance pan-European identification, but it makes long-term policy management difficult. The 7th Framework Programme of the EU expands foresight support; the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies provides futures studies for EU decision-making; the European Foresight Monitoring Network connects futurists; an annual European Futurists Conference is held in Switzerland; and the European Regional Foresight College improves future methods. The Netherlands' constitution requires a 50-year horizon for land use planning.

Latin America: Increased participation of people from the region in international organizations will improve the region's long-range global dialogs. Research from ECLAC and UNIDO's technological foresight training is stimulating long-range decision-making. The shift toward more socialist politics in some countries is motivating alternative futures thinking. Yet futures approaches are ignored by the academic and mass media, which focus on urgent and confrontational issues over ideologies, unmet basic needs, growing inequality, and large economic groups that monopolize services. The Global Millennium Prize was initiated in Mexico for students worldwide who have the best ideas for addressing global long-range challenges. Since the average age in Latin America is only 23, it is fundamental to incorporate the visions of the next generation.

North America: There are increasing efforts to link academic research and future-oriented policymaking by special initiatives in universities, think tanks, NGOs, and government departments. These efforts can be aided by sharing high-impact cases where global long-range activates clearly demonstrated benefits and where the lack of such futures thinking proved costly. (See CD Chapter 12 for examples.) Global perspectives in decision-making are emerging due to perpetual collaboration among different institutions and nations that has become the norm to address the increasing complexity and speed of global change. Responding to the complexities and multifaceted views of globalization has demanded broader sources for university curriculum development, including the synthesis of academic methods and disciplines; hence, increasing sensitivity to global long-term perspectives is being improved through higher education. Global long-term perspectives continue to be evident in the climate change policies of many local governments.

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Capacity to Decide

How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions changes? [Challenge 9]

-- Regional Considerations --

Africa: How can the cultural advantages of extended families be kept while making political and economic decisions more objective and less corrupt? Development of African civil society may need external pressure for freedom of the press, accountability, and transparency of government. Microsoft is collaborating to help e-government systems improve transparency and decision making. If the brain drain cannot be reversed, expatriates should be connected to the development processes back home through Internet systems.

Asia and Oceania: Synergies of Asian spirituality and collectivist culture with more linear, continuous, and individualistic western decision making systems could produce new decision making philosophies. The City of Gincheon, South Korea, has open the first Global Climate Change Situation Room with a collective intelligence system to aid decision making to address climate change. ASEAN could be the key institution to help improve decision making systems in the region.

Europe: Bureaucratic complexity, lack of transparency, and proliferation of decision heads threatens clear decision making in the EU. Europe is experiencing "reporting fatigue" due to so many treaties and bureaucratic rules. Tensions between the EU and its member governments and among ethnic groups are making decision making difficult.

Latin America: For e-government to increase transparency, reduce corruption, and improve decisions, Internet access beyond the wealthiest 20% is necessary. The remaining 80% receive inefficient service, difficult access locations, restricted operating hours and non-transparent processes. Government institutional design, management, and data for decision making are weak in the region. Latin America has to improve citizen participation and public education for political awareness.

North America: Blogs and self-organizing groups on the Internet are becoming de facto decision makers in North America, with decisions made at the lowest level appropriate to the problem. Approximately 20% of U.S. corporations use Decision Support Systems to select criteria, rate options, or show how issues have alternative business positions and how each is supported or refuted by research. Intellipedia provides open source intelligence to improve decision making. The region's dependence on computer-augmented decision making—from e-government to tele-business—creates new vulnerabilities to manipulation by organized crime, corruption, and cyber-terrorism, as discussed in Challenges 6 and 12.

Table: Top 20 Countries in e-government development

Source: United Nations E-Government Survey 2010

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Peace and Conflict

How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism and the use of weapons of mass destruction? [Challenge 10]

-- Regional Considerations --

Africa: Although decreasing over the past 10 years, coups, unrest, and ethnic conflicts, all resulting in a thriving illegal arms trade, continue to plague the continent, while Al Qaeda increases its influence from Mauritania to Somalia. Conditions in Zimbabwe have improved slightly, and peace negotiations are scheduled in Darfur, but Somalia is still a failed state and there has been no stable government in Madagascar for 18 months. Serious unrest has broken out between Christians and Muslims in Nigeria; Guinea Bissau seems to be on the road to recovery. The AU has adopted a convention for the protection of internally displaced persons. Increasing youth unemployment and millions of AIDS orphans may fuel a new generation of violence.

Asia and Oceania: The continuing lack of an internationally acceptable solution to Iran and North Korea's nuclear ambitions is still an unsettling factor on the continent, and Pakistan's internal instability and uncertain relationships with India and Afghanistan hinder the counter-extremist efforts in all three countries. Relations between North and South Korea have deteriorated. The U.S.'s new strategy in Afghanistan has yet to prove successful. India is facing spreading Maoist violence. Thailand's unstable political situation has deteriorated into serious street violence. Some Muslim populations from Chechnya to the Philippines are struggling, sometimes violently, for political and religious rights. China's internal problems over water, energy, income gaps, and secessionists Muslims in the northwest have to be well managed to prevent future conflicts, although tensions with Taiwan are easing. The Philippines has ceased military operations against the MILF rebels but is trying to close down 117 private militias. Indonesia has been accused of severe human rights violations. A shaky ceasefire exists in the north of Yemen, but the country, beset by a flood of Somali refugees, is perilously close to becoming a failed state as unrest and economic problems multiply and as the capital runs out of water.

Europe: The large numbers of migrant laborers entering the EU will require new approaches to integrate them better into society if increased conflicts are to be prevented; nearly half of young Algerian men want to illegally immigrate into Europe. The U.S.'s plan for missile defense in Eastern Europe is a point of disagreement between Russia and the U.S.

Latin America: Recent political changes have begun to improve opportunities for indigenous peoples, while political polarization over policies to address poverty and development persists. Venezuela is forming associations with like-minded states worldwide. Although Latin America is one of the more peaceful regions in the world, organized crime, corrupt military and police, and paramilitary groups continue to cause conflicts. And tensions exist between Colombia and Venezuela and among Bolivia, Chile, and Peru, and most recently between Argentina and Uruguay. Natural catastrophes in Haiti and Chile and the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico showed the armed and security forces lack training and equipment to adequately assist its people.

North America: Strategies are needed to prevent future applications of synthetic biology, nanotechnology, and/or artificial intelligence for individuals to make and deploy weapons of mass destruction. The U.S. and Russia signed a new arms control treaty to reduce nuclear weapons and prevent their spread to rogue states and terrorists. Experts cite 32 terrorism-related events in the U.S. since 9/11, and 12 of them occurred in 2009. Military power has yet to prove effective in asymmetrical warfare without genuine cross-cultural understandings and better multilateral cooperation. The Conflict Resolution and Peace Building course taught at the U.S. National Defense University has graduated 90 colonels and senior civilians from 30 countries.

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Transnational Crime

How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises? [Challenge 12]

-- Regional Considerations --

Africa: The West Africa Coast Initiative is a partnership among UNODC, UN Peacekeeping, ECOWAS, INTERPOL, and others to address the problems that have allowed traffickers to operate in a climate of impunity. The drug traffic from Latin America through the West African coast to Africa and Europe has been declining but is still around $1 billion annually. Piracy along the Somalia's coast and moving out as far as 1,000 miles is beginning to be taken over by TOC. The 15 million AIDS orphans in sub-Saharan Africa, with few legal means to make a living, constitute a gigantic pool of new talent for the future of organized crime. Links between African rebel factions, organized crime, and terrorism are increasing. Corruption remains a serious limit to economic development in many African countries.

Asia and Oceania: Afghan opium production, revenues, and GDP share (reportedly about one-third) are down for the second year in a row, according to UNODC. Much of this may be attributed to the shift in U.S. policy from eradication to development. Domestic addiction is spreading, however. North Korea is perceived as an organized crime state backed up by nuclear weapons involved in illegal trade in nuclear materials and equipment, weapons, counterfeit currency, sex slavery, drugs, and a range of counterfeit items. China has freed 35,000 children and 7,400 women in a nine-month anti-trafficking campaign. Myanmar is accused of deporting migrants to Thailand and Malaysia, where they are exploited, and has reportedly become a center for the ivory trade and elephant smuggling. Its opium production is also up by a factor between 1.5 and 5. Myanmar and China remain the primary sources of amphetamine-type stimulants in Asia, producing hundreds of millions of tablets annually. The Asian Organized Crime Project launched by INTERPOL is targeting Asian organized crime groups worldwide as complex adaptive networks.

Europe: INTERPOL held its 39th European Regional Conference, developing a European strategy. Europol has been established as a formal EU Agency, now benefitting from increased powers it did not have as an independent organization over the past 15 years. The EU has strengthened controls on money transfers across its borders to address trafficking and money laundering, especially in Eastern Europe. The use of cheap, low-quality drugs in the UK is on the rise. In Italy the police broke up a €6-million 'Ndrangheta-run Indian immigrant scam. 'Ndrangheta was also involved in $2.7 billion in ICT frauds. Russia will allow drug informants to make plea deals. Organized crime networks have grown 58% in Spain from 2004 to 2008.

Latin America: Governments in the region are changing their anti-drug programs to treating rather than imprisoning users, while pursuing traffickers, while the U.S.'s Mérida Initiative continues to focus on improving policing in Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. UNODC says crime is the single largest issue impeding Central American stability. Mexico's cartels receive more money (an estimated $25–40 billion) from smuggling drugs to the U.S. than Mexico earns from oil exports. Its war on drugs continues with inter-cartel, government/cartel, and even police/military violence accounting for about 7,000 deaths in 2009, up from 5,700 in 2008. $1 billion worth of oil was stolen from pipelines (396 taps) and smuggled into the U.S. over the past two years. There is a trend for Mexican drug operations to move south, into Central America. Cocaine production in Colombia has dropped by two-thirds and is now done by small gangs, using farms hidden in the jungles. The drug gangs have largely replaced the paramilitaries. Ecuador has become an important and growing center of operation for TOC gangs, serving as a meeting place and part of a massive illicit goods pipeline. Port authorities are seizing more drug consignments and counterfeit goods along container routes thanks to the UNODC/World Customs Organization–backed Container Control Programme.

North America: The International Organized Crime Intelligence and Operations Center integrates U.S. efforts to combat international organized crime and coordinates investigations and prosecutions. The Department of Justice states that in 2009 more than 200 U.S. cities reported cartel-related drugs flows. During the last decade the surrogates of Mexican drug cartels have expanded their presence across the United States and dominate the U.S. drug trade. The Canadian Committee on Justice and Human Rights is integrating counterorganized crime strategies, expected in October 2010. Drug trafficking is also linked to terrorist activities in the region. Criminal gangs have also swelled in the U.S. to an estimated 1 million members, responsible for up to 80% of crimes in communities across the nation. Organized crime and its relationship to terrorism should be treated as a national security threat.

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