RESULTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL

DELPHI ROUNDS I AND II


Panelists were presented several reasons why population growth may led to environmental degradation and were asked to suggest additional reasons. They assessed each using Scale C below. Table 5 lists the average of the panel's rating.

Scale C

1 - of paramount importance
2 - of great importance
3 - of modest importance
4 - of little importance
5 - no effect


Table 8: Some reasons why population may lead to environmental degradation


Panelists were asked to rate the forces that led to changes in environmental quality over the previous five decades and to asses how these forces might change over the next 25 years. There were also asked to suggest and rate new such forces.
Table 9: Lists the averages of the panel's judgments on their historic influence over the past five decades;

Table 10: Lists the averages of the panel's judgement on their future influence using Scale D below.


Scale D

Historic Influence

1 - Very Important
2 - Important
3 - Marginally important
4 - Unimportant
5 - Counter impact

Future Influence

1 - Greatly increasing in importance
2 - Increasing in importance
3 - Remaining the same in importance
4 - Decreasing in importance
5 - No longer a factor, or mixed


Table 9: Some historic influences on Environmental Quality in order of importance


Table 10:Future influence of these forces over the NEXT 25 years in order of importance


Panelists were asked to assess new forces and unprecedented events that might influence environmental quality in the future and to suggest additional such forces and events. They were asked for their judgments about the likelihood of occurrence and impacts of these forces and events over the next 25 years using Scale E below.
Table 11:Lists the averages of the panel's responses about the likelihood of occurrence of these events within the next 25 years;
Table 12: Lists these in terms of the future impact (only the responses on future impact are given from the first round, because the second round had a typographical error in Scale E asking impact on population instead of on environment).

Scale E

Likelihood of occurrence within the next 25 years.

a - almost certain
b - likely
c - even or 50/50 chance
d - unlikely
e - almost impossible

Eventual impact on environmental quality

1 - very positive impact.
2 - positive impact
3 - no impact
4 - negative impact
5 - very negative impact


Table 11:Likelihood of some new forces and unprecedented events that might influence environmental quality


Table 12:Some new forces and unprecedented events rated by Scale E for their eventual impact on the Environment (average responses from first round only)
With the information provided by the panel in round I, some possible future events were judged to be unlikely, but nevertheless potentially effective in reducing environmental degradation. All of these have been considered before and some have been subject to large scale international programs. Without repeating what has been said and tried many times, we asked for novel suggestions about policy approaches that might be practical, and if implemented, improve the probability of these developments. Below is a distillation of the panel's responses:


2.4.1 Novel policies that could lead to the end of tropical rain forests shrinkage:


2.4.2 Novel policies that could lead to 75% of all waste being recycled in OECD countries:


2.4.3 Novel policies that could lead to sustainable agriculture being practiced by 50% of farms in more economically advanced countries:


2.4.5 Other policy areas:

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