Global Challenges Facing Humanity

1. Sustainable Development and Climate Change How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change?

The December 2009 Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen has focused analysis on the practical details of how to manage cap and trade, pay for adaptation, stimulate technology transfer to reduce emissions, estimate when peak GHG emissions will be reached, and set goals to address climate change. Some argue that the goal should be no more than 450 ppm of atmospheric CO2, or no more than a 2°C rise from pre-industrial temperatures, but today the CO2 concentration is already at 390 ppm and glaciers are melting, polar caps are thinning, and one study found that climate change is costing the world $125 billion and 300,000 deaths per year. Average annual atmospheric CO2 increases rose from 1.5 ppm 1970–2000 to 2.1 ppm since 2000. A top NASA climatologist now suggest a 350 ppm target is needed. CO2 emissions are increasing faster—and the world is warming faster—than IPCC estimates, and the most recent estimates may understate reality again since they do not take into account the "permafrost" melting.

Each day, the oceans absorb 30 million tons of CO2, increasing their acidity. The number of dead zones—areas with too little oxygen to support life—has doubled every decade since the 1960s. Over 36 million hectares of primary forest are lost every year. Arctic summer ice and major Himalayan and Andean glaciers could be gone by 2030, leading some to warn that climate change has reached the point of no return, yet 800–1,000 coal plants without carbon capture are planned. Human consumption is 30% larger than nature’s capacity to regenerate. Global ecosystem services are valued at $16–64 trillion, which far exceeds the cost of protecting them.

It is time for a U.S.–China Apollo-like 10-year goal and global R&D strategy to address climate change that might support electric cars, saltwater agriculture, carbon capture and reuse, solar power satellites (a Japanese national goal), animal protein without animals, maglev trains, urban systems ecology, and a global climate change collective intelligence to support better decisions and keep track of it all. These would be in addition to the usual suggestions for a carbon tax, cap and trade, reduced deforestation, industrial efficiencies, co-generation, conservation, recycling, and switching government subsidies from fossil fuels to renewable energy. The EU has shown that it is possible to continue economic growth while reducing GHG emissions. Scientists are studying how to create sunshades in space, add iron powder to the oceans to absorb CO2, towers to suck CO2 from the air, and reuse carbon at power plants (e.g., algae production, liquid fuels, plastics, and cement or aggregate). The nuclear industry is gaining momentum, although the risk of accidents, waste management, and terrorist usage are not sufficiently addressed.

Without a global strategy to address climate change, the environmental movement may turn on the fossil fuel industries. The legal foundations are being laid to sue for damages caused by greenhouse gases. Large reinsurance companies estimate the annual economic loss due to climate change could reach $300 billion per year within a decade. Coastal urbanization is increasing the numbers of people vulnerable to coastal flooding. Environmental damage to developing nations caused by richer countries is more than the entire Third World debt of $1.8 trillion. To help developing countries leapfrog unsustainable practices to more sustainable ones, the Global Environment Facility provided $7.4 billion in grants and $28 billion in cofinancing since 1991 and an addition $3 billion to 2010; more funds are being established by the World Bank ($5.5 billion), Japan ($10 billion for five years), and the Asian Development Bank ($1.2 billion). The UN estimates that developing countries will need $100 billion annually to finance climate change mitigation and $28–67 billion for adaptation by 2030.

Other suggestions include retrofitting coal plants to burn leaner and to capture and reuse carbon emissions, raising fuel efficiency standards 5% a year relative to GDP, an environmental footprint tax for using more than 1.8 global hectares per person, a 1% tax on the $2 trillion of international financial transactions per day, and mandating improved car mileage one mile per year. Taxes on international travel, carbon, and urban congestion should be considered to support international public/private funding mechanism for high-impact technologies. Massive public educational efforts via film, television, music, games, and contests should stress what we can do. Even if each of these strategies were initiated today, the current and ongoing impacts of climate change and global warming would continue to affect human populations and the environment for decades to come. Hence, adaptation programs are needed too.

Although developing countries have contributed the least to global warming, they are the most vulnerable to climate change because of their dependence on agriculture and fisheries. The synergy between economic growth and technological innovation has been the most significant engine of change for the last 200 years, but unless we improve our economic, environmental, and social behaviors, the next 200 years will be difficult. Yet without sustainable growth, billions of people will be condemned to poverty and much of civilization will collapse. Challenge 1 will be addressed seriously when GDP increases while global greenhouse gas emissions decrease for five years in a row.

Regional Considerations

Africa: Africa will be hit hardest by climate change, though it contributes least to the problem; hence, the more industrialized world should contribute to the region’s adaptation to climate change and help with mitigation efforts. Southern Africa could lose more than 30% of its maize crop by 2030 due to climate change. Forest loss accelerates desertification and soil erosion, making the continent even more vulnerable to climate change. Saltwater agriculture along the coasts of Africa and solar energy in the Sahara could be massive sources of sustainable growth.

Asia and Oceania: China is the world’s largest CO2 emitter. Half of the recent rise in China's CO2 emissions is caused by the manufacturing of goods for other countries. Only 1% of China's 600 million city dwellers breathe air considered safe in Europe. China’s newer and planned coal plants are reducing its pollution per kwh. At current rates, emissions of nitrogen oxide will increase 2.3 times in China and 1.4 times in East Asia by 2020. China and India lose 12% and 10% respectively of their GDP due to environmental damage. Some 40% of reefs in the Coral Triangle, which contain 75% of the world’s coral species and sustain the lives of more than 100 million people in the region, have already been lost. Australia may begin carbon trading in 2011.

Europe: EU CO2 emissions from industry fell 3% in 2008, while emissions from all sources are now 5% below the 1990 level and are on track to meet the Kyoto targets of 8% reduction. But whether they can meet the 20% reduction target by 2020 agreed to in 2007 is still uncertain. Iceland plans to become carbon-neutral by 2025. Climate change may benefit Russian agriculture and increase their economy 1.1% if the world temperature increases by 2.5°C. Over 50% of hazardous wastes from Europe could be illegal. The Dutch retailers association announced they will buy only seafood certified by the Marine Seafood Council by 2011.

Latin America: About 27,000 km2 of forest cover are lost each year in the region. South America has 40% of the planet’s biodiversity, 26% of drinking water, and 25% of the forests. Brazil plans zero deforestation by 2020, but current trends in agriculture and livestock expansion, fire, drought, and logging could eliminate or severely damage nearly 60% of the Amazon rainforest by 2030, with the release of 55.5–96.9 billion tons of CO2. Farming for biofuels versus food is debated in Brazil while new oil reserves are discovered. The EU will provide €100 million for Latin American projects in forest management, governance, and climate change adaptation. Attacks on land tenure and the breakup of farms into smaller parcels are generating irreversible ecological damage in most countries.

North America: Permafrost temperature in northern Alaska increased about 4–7°C during the last century, almost half of it during the last 20 years; data from the northern Mackenzie Valley in the continuous permafrost zone of Canada show a 1°C increase in permafrost temperatures at depths of 20–30 meters since the 1990s. U.S. energy-related carbon emissions fell by 2.8% in 2008 due to high energy prices and the slumping economy. The Western Climate Initiative of local Canadian and U.S. governments are creating cap-and-trade and other programs to cover 90% of GHG emissions by 2015. The 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act includes more than $60 billion in clean energy investments. Technological efficiencies in nanotech and solar research from this region should help sustainable development around the world. Between 2006 and 2008, U.S. Patent and Trademark Office applications with “green” in them more than tripled in the U.S. and more than doubled in Canada.

Graph: Global Surface Temperature Anomalies (°C)

Source: NOAA National Climatic Data Center with Millennium Project estimates