1. Continue 1998/99 plan, but add additional sponsors to increase staff.
2. Create a public relations plan.
3. Nodes reported success adding people to the Global Lookout Panel, interviewing decision makers, and using project materials in for government, university courses, workshops, and professional journals, books, and newsletters, but that they need more support.
4. Rather than customize services for higher fees from sponsors, increase the number of sponsors.
5. Create educational units that can be customized by the Nodes for cultural and linguistic considerations.
Thursday - July 16, 1998
9:00 Coffee, friendly conversations, review materials.
9:30 Introductions, Objectives, Agenda, Summary of 1998 Plan
10:30 Activities since last meeting in February 1998: Brochure, 98 SOF, Pyramids 2000, Environmental Security, Proposals, New sponsor services
11:30 William Wiggenhorn, President, Motorola University
Welcome, Motorola history
Bob Galvin, former President of Motorola, Presentation of the Science
1:00 Briefing on the 1998 Global Lookout Round 1 Questionnaire and Interviews
2:00 Reports from the Nodes: Buenos Aires, Central Europe, London, Madurai
(India), Moscow, and Tehran (Beijing, Cairo and S.Pacific not present but
to be read) on observations on 1998 Rd 1, relation of MP activities to
Node Chairs' regular work, and implications for 1998/99 agenda.
7:00 Dinner - Speaker: Thomas Rautenberg, State of the World Forum
Friday - July 17, 1998
9:00 Coffee, friendly conversations, review materials.
9:30 Potential relations with other organizations: World Economic Forum, State of the World Forum, Millennium Society, other opportunities.
10:30 Promotion & Applications of the 1998 State of the Future: Spanish and other translations, articles, training, briefings, CD-ROMs, "New Directions for News"with UN Secretariate
11:30 Applications to Education and Training, New relations with center
at Yale University
1:30 Sponsorship and Fund Raising: Basic and Extended Sponsorship, Pyramids 2000 sponsorships, use of web site.
2:30 Discussion of Project Issues and Evaluation. Nodes (development, improved collaboration via Internet, Income via studies and training), Lookout panel evaluation process, panel selection, dissemination of rounds, inclusion of names with comments, use of wild cards in scenarios, etc.
3:30 General discussion, conclusions, coordination at WFS, and next steps
4:30 Adjourn - further informal meetings about computer communications for the Nodes over the weekend. Sunday evening at the WFS conference panel on MP, 98 State of the Future book signing, and private invitation meeting with potential sponsors.
The meeting began at 9:30 July 16, 1998 at the Galvin Center of Motorola
University. After the 1998 State of the Future was distributed,
Vince Serritella welcomed everyone to Motorola, followed by self-introductions
of the attendees.
Review of Past Six Months
Jerry Glenn reviewed the activities since the last meeting of the Planning
Committee and Ted Gordon presented the 1998 Plan with priorities.
The 1998 SOF begins to fulfill the goal mentioned in the feasibility study of creating cumulative wisdom about potential futures by integrating work in the previous State of the Future into the current edition. The project's ability to provide a global capacity for early warning and analysis of long-range issues, opportunities and strategies is improving as is its peer recognition.
Comments on the scenarios from the 1998 State of the Future
(98 SOF): Although Stan Rosen had not yet had a chance to review the
global scenarios for the 98 SOF, he thought their use as a framework for
more specifically focused scenarios (such as those his company creates)
would be valuable. A variety of ways of sharing the scenario materials
among the Nodes and Sponsors were discussed. The normative scenarios in
the 1998 SOF will be further developed by more systematically integrating
the issues and opportunities and by circulating them for feedback. These
normative scenarios should answer the problems identified by the Millennium
Project as well as integrate the opportunities.
MP will respond to the EPA invitation to create an environmental early
warning system and request support from the Coca-Cola Foundation for support
of the production and testing of educational units based on the MP research.
Multi-Media show and Symposium at the Dawn of the Year 2000
Jerry Glenn reported on the preliminary meetings in
Egypt to assess government support for the MP multi-media show at the Pyramids
and symposium. He met with the Director of the Pyramids (Giza Antiquities),
Dr. Zahi Hawass 18 June 1998; Governor of Giza, Mr. Maher El-Gindi on 20
June 1998; Minister of Culture, Mr. Farouk Hosni on 21 June 1998; Minister
of Media, Mr. Safawat El-Sherif on 22 June 1998; and the Minister of Tourism,
Mamdoh El-Beltagi on 24 June 1998 who have all approved the concepts of
the Millennium Project's production of:
1. A 20 minute multi-media event "The Mind's Embrace of Time at the
Dawn of the Year 2000" at the Great Pyramids in several languages for the
audiences at the Pyramids that would capture the story of human achievement,
project prospects for humanity, and highlight the issues we face at the
millennium. As possible, the Millennium Project will coordinate with entertainers
such as Jean Michel Jarre, Yanni, Lord of the Dance, and others to create
an artistic fusion of the historical and international importance of these
event. The Millennium Project event concludes with the world premiere of
the spectacular light generator - Ain Shams (Eye of the Sun) on top of
the Great Pyramid(s) which we believe will become the central international
image of the year 2000 celebrations; and
2. A five-day symposium on the "The Great Issues of the Millennium"
to be held at several locations around Egypt during the first week of the
year 2000. The Millennium Project would bring together leading minds from
around the world to address the possible futures for humanity and the issues
and opportunities we face at the Millennium.
Discussions. It was questioned whether mixing intellectual content and a show was a good idea. One Node Chair thought MP should do the 20 minutes show simultaneously in other parts of the world in cooperation with the Nodes. Since the Egyptian Government has agreed to cover both the 20 minutes show and the symposium, it could be made available in streaming video on Internet. Hence, local symposiums conduced by the Nodes could be possible. If so, then the Nodes should find the most significant locations to hole the symposium in their location. The 20 minute show could be video taped and re-broadcast when ever appropriate. Make sure it is not American-centric, but global in orientation. Stan Rosen added that good use of telecommunication technology should be made so that it is much cheaper, more accessible, more universal. Hughes Space and Communications could help with the necessary technology.
Stan Rosen agreed that the Pyramids are a focus point for the year 2000, but not the only one. Is there any reason that the Pyramids will be the center? Jerry Glenn answered that it is the only location that intersects the cultures, geography, and peoples of Asia, Africa, and Europe. The Eiffel Tower and Times Square weren't there a 1000 years ago and where do you focus on the Great China Wall? The Great Pyramid is the oldest, largest, most perfect artifact of the oldest continuous civilization. David Mercer offered to draft a letter of invitation to Prime-Ministers to attend. It was asked why just one week for the symposium? Why not to have it in different locations around the world throughout the year 2000? Ted Gordon offered to write a memo concerning the MP and Nodes participation to the event and symposium for comments.
In addition to expanding the 20 minute
show that distills the work of the MP, Nadezhda Gaponenko suggested it
also explore emerging methodologies. Others suggested adding decision implementation
and lessons from history. There would be a world-scale public education
opportunity to disseminate the project's findings and to gather leaders
in various fields. It is an opportunity to focus on thinking globally.
Bob Galvin, founder President of the Motorola
and William Wiggenhorn, President of the Motorola University gave an overview
of technology maps and how they evolved
into science maps used to help in technological forecasting and planning.
"There are always surprises about how a new technology will be used, "
Galvin said. He explained that today different institutions map different
sciences and that the Santa Fe Institute may pull them all together. He
offered assistance to the nodes countries in building their regional science
maps. Science road maps are continuously changing. 95% of the mother nature
has not been found yet. Science road map includes minority reports. (Enclosed
is some background on Science Road Maps form the Motorola University.)
He noted that 17% of GM cars this year were sold on the Internet; the previous
year was 6%..... Motivate young women to stay in mathematics and technology
sciences....How do you trust those you do not know?.....Science road maps
can help prevent unintended consequences. Mr. Galvin urged the MP people
to make clear the cost ignorance in both environmental terms and in the
loss of talent. One can embarrass people into action. He noted that 75%
of those who recently retired from Motorola bought a computer and 90% did
not know how to use them - they were taught by their grandchildren.
It was suggested to make public the road
maps to increase collaboration. Jerry Glenn suggested creating social invention
maps "perpendicular" to the science maps giving rise to questions to create
polices to better connect possible futures for science and society.
Environmental Security Study
Jerry Glenn presented an overview of the
Environmental Security stud's Round 1 and 2 plus the MP's informal meeting
at the World Bank to discuss initial findings with representatives of several
embassies and environmental security scholars. See "Environmental
Security Study" on the MP's web site.
Suggested Additional Sponsor Services
Ted Gordon suggested new services could include special sectoral briefings - how the global research affects specific sectors. Observation: if MP becomes commercial, it will lose its direction. Better to increase the annual fee than to customize its services....Stan Rose agreed that the reason they supported MP was not to receive a "customized" service, but to be associated with a project that is worthwhile to humanity. It was added that although the MP research is useful input to sponsors' planning, it is a secondary priority. "We can already contract consulting research firms for customized research." Better to have more sponsors than customers at a higher price. It was suggested that electronically cutting up of the report would be helpful to different parts of an organization. An automated version of the 98 SOF (CD-ROM or web) would make easier to access the information they need. It was stressed out that MP should continue to focus on the quality of the work, while making it more accessible to the user. It was advised a new focus on foundation support. A suggestion was that the 98 SOF should be an active, living document, up-dated on a continual basis like software, version 1.1, 1.2 etc....It would be of interest to create synergy between corporations, for example Motorola and Monsanto, on how to get more women involved in science, etc.
It was stressed out the importance of face
to face meetings and suggested that the two day planning committee meeting
have one day for an up-date and working planning session and the second
day to focus on future projects.
1998 Global Lookout
Ted Gordon presented preliminary results
of Global Lookout Round 1 questionnaire. He then explained the use of Dilemmas
for Round 2 of the Global Lookout study to present ethical dilemmas arising
from issues, opportunities, and actions from previous MP work. These draft
dilemmas will be circulated to the Nodes prior final draft of Round 2.
Jerry Glenn presented initial results of the '98 Round 1 Interviews and
noted that the number of responses to the first round of the Global Lookout
study is increasing each year: There were 51 responses in Round 1 for 1996
which increased to about 210 by year end; there were 62 responses to Round
1 in 1997 which increased to over 270 by year end; and there are already
over 100 responses to the Round 1 questionnaire this year.
Reports from the Nodes:
Pavel Novacek and Ivan Klinek, Co-chairs of Czech and Slovak Node suggested
that the Node should extend to other neighboring countries to become the
Central European Node. The 1997 State of the Future was reprinted
and distributed and is used in teaching at the Future Studies department
of the Olomouc University and in Slovakian universities. The Node will
make a presentation of the MP at the June 1999 conference "Design the Future
of Europe." The would like to host the next meeting of the Planning Committee
in the Czech Republic.
Mike McAllum, represented the South Pacific Node. The South Pacific Node
has built a network of futurists which conduct monthly telephone conference
calls on the Node's achievements and plans. A CD ROM on Futures has been
created and being tested. A seminar on Risk Management and the Future will
be conducted 27-28 August 1998 and the 98 SOF will be distributed to the
participants. The Node is seeking funds within Australia to hold a seminar
in May or June 2000 on Environmental security. Information on the MP-South
Pacific Node and a summary of last year's interviews is expected to be
published in the Futures Foundation's newsletter "Future News. The MP methodology
is very interesting and good for selling. The Node plans to include more
corporate consultants in the MP, as they bring in new flavors.
Miguel Gutierrez, Chair South American Node thanked everyone for
their messages about the passing of Horacio Godoy, the previous chairman
of the Node. The members of the Node will carry on his work as a tribute
to his memory. Prior to this meeting the SA web site had received 85,000
visitors. The Node will organize meetings in conjunction with universities
and the government of Argentina 14-16 for Jerry Glenn to introduce the
Spanish translation of the 1998 SOF (as was done for the 97 SOF) and the
Environmental Security study. Nine outstanding South American futurists
and decision makers responded to Round 1 of the Global Lookout questionnaire.
The Node is considering research project in: a) Mediation and Evolution
in Mercosur and b) Violence and Insecurity. MP materials are used in university
course in both Columbia and Argentina and the interest for the Project
Mercer, Chair London Node will send brief presentation of the 98 SOF to
the press, uses the book in teaching at the Open University, and has participated
in a number of meetings in Europe where he discussed the MP. He in interested
in promoting the "virtual circle" of decision making and research and analysis
Moscow: Nadezhda Gaponenko, Chair Russia Node translated and distributed the 1998 Global Lookout questionnaire and coordinated 13 interviews with decision-makers in the Russian Government, corporations and NGO. As a rule the respondents were heads of departments. Officials from Central Bank, Counsel of Federation, State Duma, the Space Agency of the Russian Federation. The results of last year's study as well as key positions of the 97 SOF were introduced at the annual meeting of 'Department of Forecasting' of Russian Academy of Natural Sciences. The paper "Globalization on the Threshold of New Millennium: Methodological Problems of Investigation and Mechanisms of Regulation" was published in the book Theory of Future Studies And the Future of Russia, IKF Press, Moscow, 1997. The main conclusions and results of the first operational year of the Millennium Project were introduced in this paper.
Next the Moscow Node will focus on the implementation of Millennium Project's plan for the rest of the year, write a paper for publication in Russia on the main methodological and practical results and conclusions of the 98 SOF and other ways to introduce the results to policy-makers, educational systems, and the academic community. As required, the Node will provide methodological, intellectual and language support for all actors implementing the results of the study and will prepare translate the "Brief Overview" of the Project for the web site.
Mahadevan, Chair Indian Node presented the Madurai University and its Future
Studies Ph.D. Program and noted that more than 50% of the students in Indian
technology universities are women. In addition to the distributing the
Global Lookout questionnaires and conducting interviews, the Node organized
workshops on the Millennium Project and has used the MP results and methodology
in teaching future studies. It also plans to organize several more workshops,
establish a network in India to work on/with the project, work with related
projects, and produce a production on the MP for general presentation purposes.
After Carl Lung of Motorola University
presented the Iridium telephone and network the reports from Beijing and
Cairo were read since Rusong Wang, chair of the Beijing Node and Hassan
Wageih Hassan, chair of the Cairo Node were not able to be present.
Beijing: In the last six months two questionnaires were organized: Environmental Security and the Global Lookout Study. Interviews were also conducted. July 10th the Node held a mid-year working meeting with 16 members including Chair Prof. Wang Rusong and Vice-Chair Prof. Luo Zhaohong. The meeting covered the introduction of research results of last year, contents of the 98 SOF, main works of the first part of this year including interview results, and the working plan of Beijing Node in the next six months. Two newsletters have been printed. One about the research results of MP in 1997, in which the main conclusions of "1998 State of the Future" were introduced and the other introduced the news of the MP activities and the Beijing Node. Seminars and workshops on the theme of social and economic conditions and ecological and environmental issues in East Asia especially China have been co-organized weekly by DSE/CAS and the Beijing Node.
Next the Node seeks funds for research
on the future of the rapidly developing countries in East and Southeast
Asia and funds to edit, translate, and publish a report of the main results
of the Project in 1996-1998 as well as the research results of Beijing
Node. It will fulfill all tasks of MP 1998/99 plans, invite more people
to be involved in Beijing Node activities, develop the Internet Homepage
of Beijing Node, edit one issue of the Newsletter in English and two issues
The Memorandum of Understanding was signed by Dr. Osama, the director of
the Al Ahram Press Institute. Most of the past year, Dr. Hassan Wageih
Hassan, the Node chair has been in Saudi Arabia, but is now back in Cairo
to help organize interviews and other Node activities including assistance
with Dr. Ahamid Abou-Bark on the Dawn of the Year 2000 event and symposium.
Potential relations with other organizations:
Thomas Rautenberg representing the State
of the World Forum discussed the idea of forming a relationship with MP
to provide future-oriented global assessments for their annual meetings
in San Francisco of leaders from around the world to discuss global strategy
for a positive future. It was agreed to continue exploring the relationship
and to participate in the next October Forum both by presenting the state
of the future results and interviewing some of the leaders attending the
event. State of the World might produced a synthesis or future distillation
of the 98SOF or a more in depth segmentation of the book. Preference is
for normative futures and futurists....The World Economic Forum has also
contacted the project about possible relations as well. Prior to the meeting
Hazel Henderson suggested that if a relationship is created, then WEF should
provide the project access to their global information system. It was agreed
to respond with initial information about the project.....Yale University's
Program in International Resources and the Smithsonian Institution has
agreed to collaborate on producing and testing educational units based
on MP materials...David Mercer said he would continue explorations with
the European Union and some of the EC's agencies.
Promotion and application of the 98 SOF
The marketing strategy should include a set of press releases on a range of topics for a range of audiences....make updated versions available on diskette available throughout the year....Bob Utter offered to shorten the executive summary and make suggestions about targeting segments and points of entry....Jill Montgomery suggested MP get an intern who wants to do international PR and marketing....Ted Gordon suggested that we redesign the book or design purpose oriented products-spirals, looseleaf, CD-ROMs, and placing articles on the SOF in the media....David Mercer offered to send copies to national papers for review and get articles in media....Thomas Rautenberg suggested that MP ask the sponsors if their PR departments would do a press release...Stan Rosen suggested that first MP create an overall strategic plan and create the marketing plan within that.
This suggestion lead to creating three
groups for further discussion: Nodes Issues, Products, and Strategy. A
brief summary from each group follows:
Node Issues: These are the global arms of MP, which provide input on the questionnaires, create networks of people within their region, take care of the dissemination-translation, communication, interviews, inputs and thoughts on the methodology. Their customers are policy-makers, NGOs, teachers and students. Some of the key issues include: 1) Members of Nodes work voluntarily for MP while balancing their time schedules with the regular jobs. Sometimes time restrictions from the coordinating-office are difficult to meet, and timing for the interviews are northern Hemisphere-oriented; 2) web sit maintenance costs; 3) the reports are written very much in US language; 4) the translations are expensive; 5) most do not have staff help with MP work; and 6) travel is expensive. Hence, increased funds to address these issues are needed. How to get more local corporate funds and in kind contributions? Should Nodes think in terms of countries or regions? The Nodes are able and would like to produce regional scenarios.
Ted Gordon welcomed the opportunity to
work with Nodes Scenarios in the nested approach between global and Node
scenarios.....David Mercer suggested adding Node comments in the reports
which are translated and published in their country to customize the SOF....Stan
Rosen said that more detail about how the MP material is important to document....Jerry
Glenn agreed but added that the SOF is intended to be generic, an information
utility that the Nodes can customize....Miguel Gutierrez reminded everyone
that there are two products: methodology and information....Nadezhda Gaponenko
stressed the need to improve the methodological links between sociology
and futures research....Jill Montgomery advocated more specific information
on methodology....Jerry Glenn said it looks like we will have to update
and publish the methodology book.
Products:MP has a very diverse set of global networks of knowledgeable and creative people (who produce global-local trends, descriptive drivers, and other futures insights), a process that distills vast quantities of information, information systems (web sites, listservs, data bases) and alliances with Node institutions around the world and special relations with the Smithsonian Institution, The Futures Group, Sponsors, UN organizations, and new possibilities with the State of the World Forum, Millennium Society, and others.
MP produces new global processes, SOF reports, and the potential for periodical CD-ROMs, rated information by issues, leadership/function/sector, and geography. MP provides access to experts, Nodes, perspectives, data bases, a sense of being a member of the "club," participation in meetings, and prestige to participate in the project.
Rosen: MP's first priority is public relations....Increased visibility
is the most important next step for the project. Organize press conferences,
book launches, give speeches, get book reviews, etc. Organize meetings
with potential sponsors grouped on their specific domains of interest,
eventually at the nodes....Put together a basic strategic plan with a public
relations plan at the center at this time....Joe Sasso offered to create
group sessions for potential sponsors and to see short version of SOF could
be printed by Motorola...Bob Utter cautioned that MP should make sure that
it does not turn into a consulting firm.....Stan Rosen stressed that what
people are looking for in the SOF is wisdom about the future.
Ted Gordon and Jerry Glenn closed the meeting by thanking everyone for their thoughtful and enthusiastic participation and noted that the committee has taken on more leadership and participation in the evolution of the project as-a-whole. Most of the participants spent the next several days at the World Future Society conference in Chicago where the 1998 SOF and the Project was well received in all quarters.