2011 State of the Future

by Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu

Invaluable insights
       Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General, United Nations
       Fascinating read
              Andres Oppenheimer, Miami Herald & co-winner               Pulitzer Prize    
   
A must read for any decisionmaker
       Enrique Peña Nieto, Governor of the State of Mexico
       The best introduction to the major global issues and
       long-term remedies

              Global Foresight Books
   
The value and role of The Millennium Project is priceless.
       Shamsaddin Hajiyev Gummat, Chair, Sci & Educ.,                      Parliament of Azerbaijan
       Video introduction -http://vimeo.com/m/37672860

 

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Paperback with CD 100-page print and an attached CD containing about 8,500 + pages of research behind the print edition and The Millennium Project's 15 years of cumulative research and methods.

Executive Summary:Arabic, Azeri, English, Korean, Spanish, Polish, Portuguese, Russian
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ISBN: 978-0-9818941-5-7
Library of Congress Control Number: 98-646672
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Estado del Futuro 2011
Spanish translation of the
2011 State of the Future Executive Summary: Spanish

Released: October, 2011
Order here

Gələcəyin Durumu 2011
Azeri translation of the
2011 State of the Future Executive Summary: Azeri

Released: December, 2011

Состояния Будущего 2011Russian translation of the
2011 State of the Future

Executive Summary: RussianReleased: December, 2011

유엔2025
Korean translation of the
2011 State of the Future Executive Summary: Korean

Released: December, 2011

 

 

 

 

2011 State of the Future
Arabic translation

Executive Summary: ArabicReleased: November, 2011

 

 

 

 

Table of Contents

 List of Figures and Boxes

 What is New in This Year’s Report

The 2011 State of the Future is a concise, readable overview of the global situation, problems, solutions, and prospects for the future.  It covers the global landscape with two-page overviews with regional considerations of 15 global challenges such as energy, food, science & technology, ethics, development, water, organized crime, health, decisionmaking, gender relations, demographics, war & peace, and others. These together with the executive summary are ideal for busy executives, thought leaders, corporate strategic planners, public policy experts, policy advisors, non-profit issues organizations, teachers and professors of world issues, and anyone interested in a global overview of our prospects for the future – with discussions of problems and potential solutions.


It discusses a broad range of future-oriented policy initiatives such as shifting from fresh water-based agriculture to saltwater-based agriculture; making environmental security the focus of US-China strategic trust; a global strategy to counter organized crime; and collective intelligence as one of the next big things.

There are also special chapters on an Egyptian assessment of its post-revolution 34 priorities; 32 elements shaping future of the arts, media, and entertainment industries by 2020; four scenarios for the future of Latin America by 2030; international issues of environmental security, and the State of the Future Index.

It is produced by the Millennium Project with its 40 Nodes (groups of futurists and organizations) around the world, which collects, feeds back, and assesses insights from creative and knowledgeable people on emerging crises, opportunities, strategic priorities, and the feasibility of actions.

“The 2011 State of the Future finds the world is getting richer, healthier, better educated, living longer, and is more peaceful and better connected; yet half the world is potentially unstable. Food prices are rising, water tables are falling, corruption and organized crime are increasing, environmental viability for our life support is diminishing, debt and economic insecurity are increasing, climate change continues, and the gap between the rich and poor is widening dangerously.'' says co-author and Millennium Project Director. Jerome C. Glenn.


Table of Contents

The 2011 State of the Future comes in two parts: a printed 100-page contains the executive summary of each of the studies conducted in 2010–11. The enclosed CD of about 8,000 pages contains the cumulative work of the Millennium Project since 1996 and details of the studies included in the print section.

Table of Contents - Print Section

Table of Contents - CD

List of Figures and Boxes
 

Table of Contents - Print Section

Foreword

Acknowledgments

Executive Summary - 1

  1. Global Challenges- 11
  2. State of the Future Index: Global Progress and National Applications - 45
  3. Egypt 2020- 55
  4. Future Arts, Media, and Entertainment: Seeds for 2020- 61
  5. Latin America 2030 -73
  6. Emerging Environmental Security Issues- 95
  7. Some Conclusions -105

Appendix

Millennium Project Participants Demographics- 109

Acronyms and Abbreviations

List of Figures and Boxes


Table of Contents - CD Section


Executive Summary (10 pages)

1. Global Challenges (1,400 pages)

2. State of the Future Index Section
2.1 Global SOFI (341 pages)
2.2 National SOFIs (105 pages)
2.3 Producing State of the Future Indexes Using the
International Futures Model (41 pages)
2.4 Global Challenges Assessment (94 pages)

3. Global Scenarios
3.1 Normative Scenario to the Year 2050 (21 pages)
3.2 Exploratory Scenarios (41 pages)
3.3 Very Long-Range Scenarios—1,000 years (23 pages)
3.4 Counterterrorism—Scenarios, Actions, and Policies (40 pages)
3.5 Science and Technology 2025 Global Scenarios (21 pages)
3.6 Global Energy Scenarios 2020 (103 pages)
3.7 Middle East Peace Scenarios (91 pages)
3.8 Latin America 2030 Scenarios (310 pages)

4. Governance-Related Studies
4.1 Government Future Strategy Units and Some Potentials for
International Strategic Coordination (20 pages)
4.2 Some Elements of the Next Global Economic System over the
Next 20 Years (192 pages)
4.3 Global Goals for the Year 2050 (24 pages)
4.4 World Leaders on Global Challenges (42 pages)
4.5 Egypt 2020 (8 pages)

5. Science and Technology
5.1 Future S&T Management and Policy Issues (400 pages)
5.2 Nanotechnology: Future Military Environmental Health
Considerations (21 pages)

 

6. Building Collective Intelligence Systems
6.1 Global Energy Collective Intelligence (20 pages)
6.2 Two Applications of Collective Intelligence (Climate Change Situation Room,
Early Warning for a Prime Minister Office) (10 pages)
6.3 Future of Ontologists (3 pages)


7. Futures Studies around the World
7.1 Latin America 2030 (280 pages)
7.2 Futures Research and Gaps around the World (10 pages)
7.3 Australian Report for State of the Future 2011 (248 pages)

8. Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development
8.1 Measuring Sustainable Development (61 pages)
8.2 Quality and Sustainability of Life Indicators (9 pages)
8.3 Partnership for Sustainable Development (48 pages)
8.4 A Marshall Plan for Haiti (12 pages)

9. Environmental Security
9.1 Emerging Environmental Security Issues (1,033 pages)
9.2 Environmental Security: Emerging International Definitions, Perceptions, and Policy Considerations (42 pages)
9.3 Environmental Security: UN Doctrine for Managing Environmental Issues in Military Actions (113 pages)
9.4 Environmental Crimes in Military Actions and the International Criminal Court (ICC)
—UN Perspectives (31 pages)
9.5 Environmental Security and Potential Military Requirements (44 pages)
9.6 Nanotechnology: Future Military Environmental Health Considerations (21 pages)

10. Education and Learning 2030 (59 pages)

11. Future Ethical Issues (69 pages)

12. Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decision-Making (55 pages)

Appendices (2,700 pages)
Appendix A: Millennium Project Participants
Appendix B: State of the Future Index Section
Appendix C: Global Scenarios
Appendix D: Governance-Related Studies
Appendix E: Science and Technology
Appendix F: Futures Studies around the World
Appendix G: Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development
Appendix H: Environmental Security Studies
Appendix I: Education and Learning 2030
Appendix J: Future Ethical Issues
Appendix K: Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking
Appendix L: Real-Time Delphi Process
Appendix M: Annotated Bibliography of About 850 Scenario Sets
Appendix N: Other Annotated Bibliographies:
Index of Global Reports 2009-2010
       Ethics-Related Organizations
Global Energy Scenarios and Related Research
Women/Gender Organizations
Appendix O: Reflections on the Tenth Anniversary of the State of the Future
and The Millennium Project
Appendix P: Publications of The Millennium Project
Acronyms and Abbreviations

 

Acronyms and Abbreviations

List of Figures and Boxes

Figure

Figure 1. Where we are winning
Figure 2. Where we are losing
Figure 3. Where trends are not clear
Figure 4. 2011 State of the Future
Figure 5. Global trends in freedom
Figure 6. Internet users in the world by geographic regions, 2011 (millions)
Figure 7. Patents issued in the U.S. (per year)
Figure 8. Global surface temperature anomalies
Figure 9. Population growth (annual percent)
Figure 10. Life expectancy at birth (years)
Figure 11. Infant mortality (deaths per 1,000 births)
Figure 12. Undernourishment (percent of population)
Figure 13. Improved water source (percent of population with access)
Figure 14. School enrollment, secondary (percent gross)
Figure 15. Prevalence of HIV (percent of population of age 15–49)
Figure 16. Women in parliaments (percent of all members)
Figure 17. Internet users (billion people)
Figure 18. Number of major armed conflicts (number of deaths >1,000)
Figure 19. R&D expenditures (percent of national budget)
Figure 20. GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$)
Figure 21. Unemployment, total (percent of total labor force)
Figure 22. Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (percent of population)
              (low- and mid-income countries)
Figure 23. Levels of corruption (15 largest countries) (larger numbers = less corruption)
Figure 24. 2011 State of the Future Index
Figure 25. SOFI using IFs for six Countries
Figure 26. 2011 State of the Future Index with TIA
Figure 27. 2011 SOFI, Recession Scenario
Figure 28. 2011 SOFI, Bad Weather Scenario
Figure 29. 2011 SOFI, Bellicose Scenario
Figure 30. 2011 SOFI, Green Scenario
Figure 31. SOFI with TIA for the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste
Figure 32. The Kuwait State of the Future Index with TIA (2010=1)
Figure 33. Kuwait CO2 emissions with TIA (tons/capita/year)
Figure 34. An example of the questionnaire for 2 of the 32 elements
Figure 35. Comparative evolution of population (linear scale):
               Historic and projections, 1800–2050
Figure 36. Comparative evolution of GDP per person (logarithmic scale):
               Historic and projections, 1800–2030
Figure 37. Single-point forecast versus scenarios
Figure 38. Scenario matrix
Figure 39. Number of parties to selected multilateral environmental
               agreements, 1975–2011
Figure 40. Demographics of Participants in the 2010–11 program
Figure 41. Demographics of the Participants since 1996

Boxes
Box 1. What Is New in This Year’s Report
Box 2. The world score card
Box 3. The variables included in the 2011 SOFI


Tables
Table 1. SOFI variables with adjusted parameters
Table 2. Developments considered in SOFI with their respective probabilities and potential scenarios
Table 3. Historical and forecasted values of selected variables used in K-SOF
Table 4. Developments included in the TIA and judgments about their
            probabilities, importance, and institutional readiness to deal with them
Table 5. Developments that might shape the future of Egypt, listed by
            their average likelihood to be achieved by 2020, as rated
Table 6. Top six seeds in order of importance
Table 7. Latin America in the global context
Table 8. Comparative best and worst cases for international indexes, 2010
            (economics-society-ecology-politics-technology)


Table 10. Estimates on values of variables concerning society, technology, economics, environment,
              and politics
Table 11. Importance of society, technology, environment, economics, and politics for Latin American
              and international scenarios to 2030


What Is New in This Year’s Report

  • Executive Summary of this year’s research and update on the global situation.
  • Both the short and the long versions of the 15 Global Challenges were updated.
  • The 2011 State of the Future Index and national examples from Kuwait and Timor-Leste.
  • Initial assessment of 34 new objectives and policy directions in Egypt.
  • A set of four alternative scenarios for the future of Latin America by 2030.
  • International assessment of 32 possible seeds of the future of arts, media, and entertainment.
  • Distillation of more than 300 items related to environmental security identified over the past year
    and full text of items identified since 2002 in CD Chapter 9.1.
  • The CD includes details and research that support the print version; it also includes the complete
    text of previous Millennium Project research:
    • Detailed description of each of the 15 Global Challenges.
    • Evolution and computation of the State of the Future Index.
    • Global exploratory, normative, and very-long range scenarios, along with an introduction
      describing their development.
    • Concept and concrete applications of Collective Intelligence systems.
    • Science & Technology and Global Energy Scenarios and supporting studies.
    • Assessment of governance-related issues and future strategy units in selected governments.
    • Environmental security definitions, threats, related treaties; UN military doctrine on
      environmental issues; potential military environmental crimes and the International Criminal
      Court; changing environmental security military requirements in 2010–25.
    • Two studies to create indexes and maps of the status of sustainable development.
    • An international review of the concept of creating a “Partnership for Sustainable
      Development.”
    • Study of factors required for successful implementation of futures research in decisionmaking.
    • An Annotated Scenarios Bibliography of over 850 scenario sets totaling over 2,150 scenarios

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