2010 State of the Future
by Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu
"Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, should read this incredible document, period!"
Technological Forecasting & Social Change
"If you think too much has changed too radically lately, read the State of the Future and think again!"
Olcay Unver, Coordinator, United Nations World Water Assessment Programme
Invaluable insights into the future for the United Nations, its Member States, and civil society.
Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General, United Nations
One of the rare examples of integrated thinking on global challenges that needs to be addressed if we are to enhance the quality of life for present and for future generations
Liz Mohn, Vice-Chair of the Executive Board, Bertelsmann Stiftung, Germany
Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, should read this incredible document, period!
Technological Forecasting & Social Change
The State of the Future continues as the best introduction--by far--to major global issues and long-term remedies.
The State of the Future is an ambitious meeting of research and vision, presenting a grand-scale sweep of today’s world and its difficulties.
The Millennium Project is the world’s preeminent think tank.
Dr. Abdullah Al Kara, Chairman, Knowledge and Human Development Authority, Dubai
Ten of the twelve annual State of the Future reports were selected by Future Survey as among the year’s best books on the future.
This “report card on the future” distills the collective intelligence of over 2,700 leading scientists, futurists, scholars, and policy advisors who work for governments, corporations, non-governmental organizations, universities, and international organizations. The 2010 State of the Future comes in two parts: a 83-page print executive summary and an attached CD containing about 7,000 pages of research behind the print edition and the Millennium Project's 14 years of cumulative research and methods. Some unique features not available in other global assessments include:
- Building Collective Intelligence Systems
- 15 Global Challenges
- Producing the State if the Future Index Using the International Futures Model
- Emerging Environmental Security Issues
- Latin America 2030
- Futures Research and Gaps Around the World
- 800 Annotated Scenario Sets
It is produced by the Millennium Project with its 35 Nodes (groups of futurists and organizations) around the world, which collects, feeds back, and assesses insights from creative and knowledgeable people on emerging crises, opportunities, strategic priorities, and the feasibility of actions.
“Although the future has been getting better for most of the world over the past 20 years, the global recession has lowered the State of the Future Index for the next 10 years. The global financial crisis and climate change planning may be helping humanity to re-think its assumptions and move from its often self-centered adolescence to a more globally responsible adulthood, states the report. “This year’s annual State of the Future is an extraordinarily rich distillation of iformation for those who care about the world and its future. It describes in non-technical language what the educated person should kno0 about the world and what to do to improve it'' says co-author and Millennium Project Director. Jerome C. Glenn.
The 2010 State of the Future is composed of two parts: print and CD. The print book contains the executive summary of each of the studies conducted in 2009–10. The enclosed CD of about 7,000 pages contains the cumulative work of the Millennium Project since 1996 and details of the studies included in the print section.
- Global Challenges- 11
- Producing State of the Future Indexes Using the International Futures Model- 43
- Building Collective Intelligence Systems- 53
- Emerging Environmental Security Issues- 63
- Latin America 2030 -71
- Futures Research and Gaps Around the World- 79
Acronyms and Abbreviations
List of Figures and Boxes
Executive Summary (10 pages)
1. Global Challenges (1,400 pages)
2. State of the Future Index Section
2.1 Global SOFI (341 pages)
2.2 National SOFIs (105 pages)
2.3 Producing State of the Future Indexes Using the
International Futures Model (41 pages)
2.4 Global Challenges Assessment (94 pages)
3. Global Scenarios
3.1 Normative Scenario to the Year 2050 (21 pages)
3.2 Exploratory Scenarios (41 pages)
3.3 Very Long-Range Scenarios—1,000 years (23 pages)
3.4 Counterterrorism—Scenarios, Actions, and Policies (40 pages)
3.5 Science and Technology 2025 Global Scenarios (21 pages)
3.6 Global Energy Scenarios 2020 (103 pages)
3.7 Middle East Peace Scenarios (91 pages)
4. Governance-Related Studies
4.1 Government Future Strategy Units and Some Potentials for
International Strategic Coordination (20 pages)
4.2 Some Elements of the Next Global Economic System over the
Next 20 Years (192 pages)
4.3 Global Goals for the Year 2050 (24 pages)
4.4 World Leaders on Global Challenges (42 pages)
5. Science and Technology
5.1 Future S&T Management and Policy Issues (400 pages)
5.2 Nanotechnology: Future Military Environmental Health
Considerations (21 pages)
6. Building Collective Intelligence Systems
6.1 Global Energy Collective Intelligence (20 pages)
6.2 Two Applications of Collective Intelligence (Climate Change Situation Room,
Early Warning for a Prime Minister Office) (10 pages)
6.3 Future of Ontologists
7. Futures Studies around the World
7.1 Latin America 2030 (280 pages)
7.2 Futures Research and Gaps around the World (10 pages)
8. Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development
8.1 Measuring Sustainable Development (61 pages)
8.2 Quality and Sustainability of Life Indicators (9 pages)
8.3 Partnership for Sustainable Development (48 pages)
8.4 A Marshall Plan for Haiti (12 pages)
9. Environmental Security
9.1 Emerging Environmental Security Issues (1,033 pages)
9.2 Environmental Security: Emerging International Definitions, Perceptions, and Policy Considerations (42 pages)
9.3 Environmental Security: UN Doctrine for Managing Environmental Issues in Military Actions (113 pages)
9.4 Environmental Crimes in Military Actions and the International Criminal Court (ICC)
—UN Perspectives (31 pages)
9.5 Environmental Security and Potential Military Requirements (44 pages)
10. Education and Learning 2030 (59 pages)
11. Future Ethical Issues (69 pages)
12. Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decision-Making (55 pages)
Appendices (2,700 pages)
Appendix A: Millennium Project Participants
Appendix B: State of the Future Index Section
Appendix C: Global Scenarios
Appendix D: Governance-Related Studies
Appendix E: Science and Technology
Appendix F: Building Collective Intelligence Systems
Appendix F: Futures Studies around the World
Appendix G: Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development
Appendix H: Environmental Security Studies
Appendix I: Education and Learning 2030
Appendix J: Future Ethical Issues
Appendix K: Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures
Research in Decisionmaking
Appendix L: Real-Time Delphi Process
Appendix M: Annotated Bibliography of About 700 Scenario Sets
Appendix N: Other Annotated Bibliographies:
Index of Global Reports 2009-2010
Global Energy Scenarios and Related Research
Appendix O: Reflections on the Tenth Anniversary of the State of the Future
and The Millennium Project
Appendix P: Publications of The Millennium Project
Acronyms and Abbreviations
Figure 1 . Areas in which humanity is winning
Figure 2 . Areas in which humanity is failing
Figure 3. Global trends in freedom
Figure 4. Internet Users in the World
Figure 5. Share of people living on less than $1.25 a day (%)
Figure 6. Women in National Parliaments (percentage)
Figure 7. Patents Issued per year
Figure 8. Government Corruption
Figure 9. Global challenges and SOFI process
Figure 10. Calories/capita/day
Figure 11. GDP per unit energy
Figure 12. Population growth rate
Figure 13. Systemic State of the Future Index (for Brazil, Germany, and Nigeria)
Figure 14. State of the Future Index (for Brazil, Germany, and Nigeria)
Figure 15. SOFI vs. Systemic SOFI
Figure 16. The IFs forecast of HDI for Brazil, Germany, and Nigeria
Figure 17. Simple Overview of the Concept of Collective Intelligence
Figure 18. Global Climate Change Situation Chart Optional Interface
Figure 19. Front page of the Drupal Development (Bata) Platform
Figure 20. Energy Dash Board for Solar Power Satellites
Figure 21. Argument-structured Information Overview of an Issue
Figure 22. An Example of an Issues-Based Information Systems (IBIS) –Conversation
Figure 23. Example of a Real-Time Delphi On-line Questionnaire
Figure 24. Collective Intelligence Platform Architecture as conceived
by Jack Park, Millennium Project Software Developer
Figure 25. Number of parties to multilateral environmental agreements, 1975–2010
Figure 26. Current activities: distribution of future topics
Figure 27. Map of future issues: current activities of The Millennium Project Nodes
Figure 28. Distribution of under-represented future topics
Figure 29. Map of under-represented future topics: thematic relevance
according to the survey
Box 1. What Is New in This Year’s Report
Box 2. Where is humanity winning and losing?
Box 3. Computation of systemic SOFI
Box 4. Computation of SOFI
Table 1. Top 20 Countries in e-government development
Table 2. Variables, weights, and limits included in the IFs model for calculating SOFI
Table 3. Values and weights of variables "Life Expectancy" and "GDP/capita" for the calculation of SOFI
Table 4. Sample of Systemic SOFI and SOFI for several countries
Table 5. Countries classified by their systemic SOFI and SOFI
Table 6. Differences between HDI and SOFI
Table 7. Change of variables from 2005 to 2030, for Brazil, Germany, Nigeria
Table 8. Developments rated as likely and significant
Table 9. Developments rated as highly significant but less likely
Table 10. Estimates on values of variables concerning society, technology, economics, environment,
Table 11. Importance of society, technology, environment, economics, and politics for Latin American
and international scenarios to 2030
- Executive Summary of this year's research and update on the global situation.
- Both the short and the long versions of the 15 Global Challenges were updated.
- Enhanced capability of the State of the Future Index by its introduction into the University of Denver's International Futures (IFs) modeling system, thus allowing the calculation and comparison of the SOFI for all nations covered in the model.
- Two applications of building collective intelligence systems: a Climate Change Situation Room (in South Korea), and an Early Warning System with SOFI capability for the Office of the Prime Minister of Kuwait.
- More than 300 items related to environmental security were identified, assessed, and organized over the past year. A distilled version is presented in Chapter 4 and the full text of about 2,000 items identified since 2002 is available in CD Chapter 9.1.
- International assessment of developments that might have a significant impact for the future of Latin America by the year 2030. A distillation of the study is presented in Chapter 5, with full results included in the CD Chapter 7.
- A survey of The Millennium Project Nodes' futures research activities, with assessment of trends and potential gaps or insufficiently addressed themes in futures studies.
- The CD includes details and research that support the print version; it also includes the complete text of previous Millennium Project research:
- Detailed description of each of the 15 Global Challenges
- Evolution and Computation of the State of the Future Index
Global exploratory, normative, and very-long range scenarios, along with an introduction describing their development
- Concept and concrete applications of Collective Intelligence systems
- Science and Technology, and Global Energy Scenarios and supporting studies
- Assessment of governance-related issues and future strategy units in selected governments
- Environmental security definitions, threats, related treaties; UN military doctrine on environmental issues; potential military environmental crimes and the International Criminal Court; changing environmental security military requirements in 2010–25.
- Two studies to create indexes and maps of the status of sustainable development.
- An international review of the concept of creating a "Partnership for Sustainable Development."
- Study of factors required for successful implementation of futures research in decisionmaking.
- An Annotated Scenarios Bibliography of over 800 scenario sets totaling over 2,100 scenarios
- Detailed description of each of the 15 Global Challenges
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