July 28, 2021 Video of the lead-authors of each of the three USA Covid-19 scenarios explain both methodology and key concepts as well as lessons learned.
October 13, 2020 Washington, DC Newswire What’s Next for COVID Pandemic – Detailed Scenarios by The Millennium Project with the American Red Cross.
Spanish translation of Introduction, Executive Summary, and Conclusions Download
The three richly detailed Covid Scenarios of the United States to January 2022 are:
- Scenario 1: America Endures (baseline, mix of good and bad developments)
- Scenario 2: Depression, Hubris, and Discord (plausible worse case)
- Scenario 3: Things go Right! (plausible best case)
THREE FUTURES OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN THE UNITED STATES JANUARY 1, 2022
Implications for all of us This report contains the three scenarios, plus an introduction, executive summary, conclusions, detailed lists of implications, readiness, list of low probability events that could change the scenarios, and an appendix with results from four Real-Time Delphi studies that was used as input to the scenarios plus the list of over 250 participants in these studies.
The three scenarios incorporated input from over 250 medical doctors, public health professionals, emergency relief staff, economists, and futurists in five US and international Real-Time Delphi studies (a unique interactive survey process). These studies assessed the possible best, worst, and most likely conditions by January, 2022.
The key insights drawn from these scenarios written in Summer/Fall of 2020 are:
- The worst is yet to come: the greatest health, financial, economic, and psychological impacts lie ahead.
- The difference between the best and worst scenarios is gigantic; the outcome will be determined over the next few months by public actions including wearing masks, physical distancing, handwashing, and avoiding indoor crowds.
- Pinning all our hopes on a vaccine to end the COVID pandemic, is unwise.
- However, a whole-of-nation strategy, responsible public behavior, strategic leadership, and international coordination can dramatically improve our situation.
“These scenarios provide integrated pictures of COVID possibilities, not just economic or medical, but the whole situation, so that people can integrate new information into a holistic picture,” says Jerome Glenn, leader of the scenarios team and CEO of The Millennium Project. “We hope these will also stimulate other countries to produce scenarios for a more coherent understanding than the current fragmented information overload we have today.”
Other key insights include: the pandemic is increasing inequality; psychological support systems need to be expanded; a whole-of-nation pandemic leadership connecting national plans and local community actions must anticipate greater support for the homeless, unemployed, and food security needs. These scenarios also show how US leadership with G-7, WHO, and international financial institutions would shorten the negative impacts; as well as how financial support for vaccine distribution to lower-income countries is needed to prevent continual returns of the virus with the potential of mutations impacting vaccine efficacy.
The Millennium Project warned that, “Increasing mass migrations and international travel spread disease more rapidly than in the past; increasing urbanization and population density accelerate and intensify the capacity to bring life as we know it to a grinding halt.” 1997 State of the Future.
Background:
The Millennium Project was asked by the American Red Cross to create COVID-19 Scenarios. Although these take global change into account, these scenarios will focus on the United States. However, Millennium Project Node chairs are encouraged to work with their own national Red Cross, Red Crescent, and/or WHO representatives to create their own national scenarios and are welcome to work with the American Red Cross/Millennium Project team as well.
- In addition to extensive review of other Covid scenarios and related research, the The Millennium Project Covid Scenarios project has used five (5) Real-Time (RTD) studies as inputs to Covid Scenarios drafts followed by an external peer review of the scenarios before the final drafts.
Research Outline
| Five Real-Time Delphi Studies | Panel (Participants) |
| US medical/health variables | US medical and health professionals, plus others studying the pandemic selected from research reports, literature search, and the steering committee recommendations |
| US socio-economic variables | US social-economic professionals selected from research reports, literature search, and the steering committee recommendations |
| Global health/medical variables likely to affect the future conditions of the pandemic in the US | International experts in medical and health professions, plus others studying the pandemic selected by The Millennium Project Nodes around the world and by the steering committee from research reports, and literature searches. |
| Global socio-economic variables likely to affect the future conditions of the pandemic in the US | International experts in socio-economic and related fields selected by The Millennium Project Nodes around the world and by the steering committee from research reports, and literature searches. |
| State of the Pandemic Index. Assessment of variables that indicate the course of the pandemic for an integrated index. | US medical/health professionals, socio-economic analysts selected from the first two Real-Time Delphi studies |
| Internal review of draft scenarios | Millennium Project scenario team |
| External review of the scenarios | US policy analysts, related government, business, and NGO officials, medical/health professionals, socio-economic analysts selected from the previous RTD’s and the steering committee |