The 15 Global Challenges have been identified and updated since 1996, drawing on insights from over 70 global futures research studies by The Millennium Project, global scanning systems, feedback from previous State of the Future reports, and inputs from The Project’s Nodes and Interns from around the world.

These Global challenges can be used both as a framework to understand global change and as an agenda to improve the future. These Challenges are transnational in nature and transinstitutional in solution. They cannot be addressed by any government or institution acting alone. They require collaborative action among governments, international organizations, corporations, universities, NGOs, and creative individuals. There is greater consensus about the global situation as expressed in these Challenges and the actions to address them than is evident in the news media.

Although listed in sequence, Challenge 1 on sustainable development and climate change is no more or less important than Challenge 15 on global ethics. Just like the human body; the circulatory system is no more or less important than nervous system. Improvements in one Global Challenge will have positive effects on the other Challenges; and deterioration in one Challenge will have negative effects on the other Challenges.

The Millennium Project was contracted by the State of the World Forum, Inc. to produce a special report on the 15 Global Challenges that was given to all countries as input to their preparations for the UN Millennium Summit in 2000. This UN Summit adopted the Millennium Declaration which led to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) with OECD’s collaboration a year later. The MDGs then lead to the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Hence, there is no direct connection between the 15 Global Challenges and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals, but indirect, as there were many inputs to both the MDGs and the SDGs. The Challenges provide input to efforts to achieve the Goals.

Readers are invited to contribute their insights to improve the overview of these 15 global challenges for future editions of the State of the Future. Please email us at info@millennium-project.org.

The following diagram presents the process on how the 15 Global Challenges were identified and the continuous work ever since.

Short History:

1996-1997: The Millennium Project asked an international panel of eminent futurists, scholars, and decisionmakers which are the most important issues facing humanity. The process consisted of through literature review, several Delphi rounds, and interviews. The results were 182 developments, with 131 actions to address them. For greater cohesion, these were distilled into 15 Global Issues.

1997-1998: Through a similar process as in the previous year, The Millennium Project asked which are the most important opportunities facing humanity. The results were 180 developments, with 213 actions to address them. For greater cohesion, these were again distilled into 15 Global Opportunities. Note: the fact that the results were again 15 was pure coincidence.

1998-1999: At the 1998 Millennium Project Planning Committee it was decided that the 15 Global Issues be merged with the 15 Global Opportunities, so that a more condensed list results with items to be followed through time to assess change — progress or regress in different domains and the global situation as-a-whole. The result were the 15 Global Challenges with 213 actions to address them. Note: again, the number of 15 items and 213 actions was pure coincidence; there was no previous number objectives set.

1999-2000: For better description and easier understanding, a structure was set for each Global Challenge: a general overview of the situation and potential trends; regional specifics and trends; actions to address the challenge; specific comments or relevant papers; indicators to follow progress.

2000-2001: The process for assessing progress on each challenge and the global future as-a-whole has been developed. A Delphi study was conducted to determine which are the best indicators to assess progress (or regress) for each challenge, and which are the best and worst values for those indicators in 10 years. Ted Gordon developed the State of the Future Index (SOFI), which integrates into one index the most relevant indicators to measure change of the global challenges. SOFI is a measure of the 10-year outlook for the future based on historical data for the last 20 years. It continues to be computed and developed ever since.

2001-2012: The updating of the Global Challenges continued, being published in the annual State of the Future reports. For easier reading, a short overview of the challenges with regional considerations was published in the print sections of the report, while the increasingly detailed and more documented research was published in the CD accompanying the reports. The SOFI also continued to be computed and further developed each year. Over the years, it has been improved by adding the Trend Impact Analysis, writing scenarios, and computation of national SOFIs for several countries.

Since 2012-2017: the process of updating of the Global Challenges has been improved by moving it into cyberspace, as part of the Global Futures Intelligence System (GFIS) Here, references are linked directly to the source, and each challenge has a review panel that continuously updates the content and reviews the suggestions provided by other readers or participants. Therefore, the Global Challenges emerge as a global collective, independent, objective, and well-documented view of the world situation and perspective, with suggested actions to address them, sources for further details, relevant organizations and news sources, as well as the possibility of the public to contribute their own views or conduct dialog with experts on specific issues of interest.

SOFI continues to be computed each year. A Real-Time Delphi is conducted before each computation to collect opinions on the indicators and values to be included, as well as potential actions to improve the global future.

2017-Present: Internal software updated and problems in AWS where GFIS was housed, became impossible to correct and now is no longer available. Until financial support is found for a new collective intelligence system on the future, the 15 Global Challenges are updated by the process described in the first paragraph.